Value
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.2 |
| P/S | 7.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.8 |
| PEG | 4.7 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 25.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.77
VMC · Why this verdict
Why Vulcan Materials Company (Holdi (VMC) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Vulcan Materials shows strong positive price momentum with volume accumulation and a bullish technical setup, but two of the last four quarters missed earnings estimates, the stock trades at a premium valuation with a forward price-to-earnings of 27x, and free cash flow represents only 22% of net income, raising earnings quality concerns.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Rising on-balance volume, a momentum continuation setup with RSI at 67, bullish MACD, and a price above the 200-day moving average indicate that institutional buyers are accumulating shares despite the broader valuation concerns. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume continues to rise and the stock stays above its 200-day moving average for the next 6 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMomentum continuation setups near 52-week highs in premium-valued industrials have historically preceded mean reversion; high on-balance volume near the top often reflects late-cycle distribution. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings ratio of 27x and free cash flow representing only 22% of net income together suggest the stock is priced for perfection at a time when earnings quality is below average, leaving limited margin of safety. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion improves above 50% of net income within the next 2 annual reporting periods, validating the premium valuation. | →Stable |
| CounterBuilding materials companies with infrastructure demand tailwinds often sustain premium multiples; Vulcan's aggregates business has natural pricing power that can justify the valuation over a cycle. | ||
A put-to-call ratio of 1.33 and the stock trading above its maximum pain level of $210 suggest meaningful hedging activity in the options market, with 62% implied volatility reflecting uncertainty about the near-term price direction. Options | Put-to-call ratio falls below 0.9 within the next 6 months, indicating a reduction in defensive options positioning. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA put-to-call ratio of 1.33, while elevated, is not extreme, and may reflect routine portfolio hedging by large holders rather than outright bearish conviction. | ||
The last four quarters produced 2 beats and 2 misses, with the misses concentrated in the February 2026 quarter at minus 19%, suggesting uneven execution that introduces meaningful uncertainty into forward earnings reliability. Earnings | Earnings surprise stays positive in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters, resolving the mixed recent track record. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe two beats included a 22% positive surprise in April 2026, and the full four-quarter average surprise remains modestly positive at 1.1%, indicating the business is roughly tracking consensus. | ||
Rising on-balance volume, a momentum continuation setup with RSI at 67, bullish MACD, and a price above the 200-day moving average indicate that institutional buyers are accumulating shares despite the broader valuation concerns.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume continues to rise and the stock stays above its 200-day moving average for the next 6 months.
CounterMomentum continuation setups near 52-week highs in premium-valued industrials have historically preceded mean reversion; high on-balance volume near the top often reflects late-cycle distribution.
A forward price-to-earnings ratio of 27x and free cash flow representing only 22% of net income together suggest the stock is priced for perfection at a time when earnings quality is below average, leaving limited margin of safety.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion improves above 50% of net income within the next 2 annual reporting periods, validating the premium valuation.
CounterBuilding materials companies with infrastructure demand tailwinds often sustain premium multiples; Vulcan's aggregates business has natural pricing power that can justify the valuation over a cycle.
A put-to-call ratio of 1.33 and the stock trading above its maximum pain level of $210 suggest meaningful hedging activity in the options market, with 62% implied volatility reflecting uncertainty about the near-term price direction.
↑ImprovingOptions
- Expectation
- Put-to-call ratio falls below 0.9 within the next 6 months, indicating a reduction in defensive options positioning.
CounterA put-to-call ratio of 1.33, while elevated, is not extreme, and may reflect routine portfolio hedging by large holders rather than outright bearish conviction.
The last four quarters produced 2 beats and 2 misses, with the misses concentrated in the February 2026 quarter at minus 19%, suggesting uneven execution that introduces meaningful uncertainty into forward earnings reliability.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise stays positive in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters, resolving the mixed recent track record.
CounterThe two beats included a 22% positive surprise in April 2026, and the full four-quarter average surprise remains modestly positive at 1.1%, indicating the business is roughly tracking consensus.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.4 |
| ROA | 4.0 |
| Gross margin | 1.5 |
| Op margin | 8.6 |
| Net margin | 6.9 |
| Current ratio | 6.3 |
| FCF quality | 5.7 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 76% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
2.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.1 |
| EPS growth | 2.5 |
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.9 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.6 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 3.5 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 71)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.2 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.30 (n=2)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $4,436,604 (0.013% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.8 |
| quality rank | 6.1 |
| growth rank | 0.7 |
Technical
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.8 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 6.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 7.2 |
| put call | 6.4 |
| implied vol | 6.8 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.8 |
| debt equity | 7.5 |
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings today
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.8% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (4)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.39
Upside
+4.2%
Downside
10.6%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Risk (lower is worse) at 7.2 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.2, Sentiment at 6.1, and Catalyst at 5.9; the weakest are Growth at 2.8, Technical at 3.1, and Peer rank at 3.2. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.39 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Positive Price Momentum Accumulation
Trip ifOn-balance volume declines for more than 40 consecutive trading days, confirming a shift from accumulation to distribution.
- P2Mixed Earnings Execution Record
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, extending the mixed track record into a miss-dominated pattern.
- P3Premium Valuation Low Free Cashflow
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings rises above 35x, indicating valuation has expanded further ahead of earnings delivery.
- P4Elevated Put Call Options Positioning
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio rises above 2.0, indicating a meaningful increase in bearish options positioning.