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EXPEagle Materials IncSell5.3·$217.38+5.12%
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Eagle Materials Inc (EXP) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Building Materials

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $217.38 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: ten states (65.0%).

Eagle Materials manufactures Portland Cement and Gypsum Wallboard plus concrete and aggregates through 70+ facilities in 21 states, primarily in the U.S. heartland. Record revenue of $2.3 billion in fiscal 2025; primary end markets are public infrastructure (cement/concrete) and... Read more

$217.38+1.8% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#11 of 12 Building Materials
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.57%
IncomeYield0.48%(5y avg 0.52%)Payout7.60%sustainable
Stop $202.16Target $221.20(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$223.56+2.8%9 analysts
$221.20our TP
$217.38price
$223.56mean
$200
$246

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $217.38 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: ten states (65.0%). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst cluster(4), earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202648d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Recent Analyst Cluster(4) detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: ten states (65.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.7
P/E (Fwd)14.0
Mkt Cap$6.4B
EV/EBITDA10.8
Profit Mgn18.4%
ROE28.9%
Rev Growth1.9%
Beta1.38
Dividend0.48%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.80bearish
IV55%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicten states65%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 65% of our total revenue ... is generated in ten states: Colorado, Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Texas.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.0
Earnings Growth
4.4
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.4>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(4)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 48d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $188.79Resistance $225.71

Price Targets

$202
$221
A.Upside+1.8%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (48d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EXP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $217.38 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: ten states (65.0%). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $202.16. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the EXP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $221.20 (+1.8% upside). Prior stop was $202.16. Stop-loss: $202.16.

What are the risks of investing in EXP?

Concentration risk — Geographic: ten states (65.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Is EXP overvalued or undervalued?

Eagle Materials Inc trades at a P/E of 15.7 (forward 14.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EXP?

18 analysts cover EXP with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $224.

What does Eagle Materials Inc do?Eagle Materials manufactures Portland Cement and Gypsum Wallboard plus concrete and aggregates through 70+ facilities...

Eagle Materials manufactures Portland Cement and Gypsum Wallboard plus concrete and aggregates through 70+ facilities in 21 states, primarily in the U.S. heartland. Record revenue of $2.3 billion in fiscal 2025; primary end markets are public infrastructure (cement/concrete) and residential construction (wallboard). About 65% of total revenue concentrated in ten states.

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