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VACMarriott Vacations Worldwide CoSell5.5·$89.51+0.02%
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Marriott Vacations Worldwide Co (VAC) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $89.51 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Vacation Ownership segment (95.0%).

Marriott Vacations Worldwide is a leading global vacation ownership company with 120 resorts and ~700,000 owner families, plus the Interval International exchange network of 3,200+ affiliated resorts with 1.5M members. Revenue of ~$5.0B in 2025 is 95% from the Vacation Ownership... Read more

$89.51+0.3% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#6 of 12 Resorts & Casinos
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield6.76%
IncomeYield3.58%(5y avg 1.52%)Payout69.15%
Stop $83.24Target $89.78(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$87.30-2.5%10 analysts
$89.78our TP
$89.51price
$87.30mean
$51
$105

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $89.51 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Vacation Ownership segment (95.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202658d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Vacation Ownership segment (95.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.3% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)10.6
Mkt Cap$3.1B
EV/EBITDA14.9
Profit Mgn-10.3%
ROE-15.5%
Rev Growth0.0%
Beta1.26
Dividend3.58%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.24bearish
IV62%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductVacation Ownership segment95%
    10-K Item 1: 'The Vacation Ownership segment represented 95% of our consolidated revenue for 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-06Item 5.02MEDIUM
    James H. Hunter IV (EVP, General Counsel and Secretary) resigned at the Company's request, effective March 9, 2026 with employment ending April 1, 2026. Severance of $1.5M (1.5x base salary plus target bonus). No successor named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-17Item 5.02LOW
    On Feb 16, 2026, Matthew E. Avril (interim President/CEO since Nov 2025) was confirmed as CEO, effective immediately. Michael A. Flaskey was also appointed President and Chief Operating Officer effective Feb 16, 2026. No reason cited for prior CEO exit.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 58d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
76 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $67.65Resistance $91.61

Price Targets

$83
$90
A.Upside+0.3%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-15.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (58d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VAC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $89.51 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Vacation Ownership segment (95.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $83.24. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the VAC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $89.78 (+0.3% upside). Prior stop was $83.24. Stop-loss: $83.24.

What are the risks of investing in VAC?

Concentration risk — Product: Vacation Ownership segment (95.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.3% away).

Is VAC overvalued or undervalued?

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Co trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VAC?

15 analysts cover VAC with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $87.

What does Marriott Vacations Worldwide Co do?Marriott Vacations Worldwide is a leading global vacation ownership company with 120 resorts and ~700,000 owner...

Marriott Vacations Worldwide is a leading global vacation ownership company with 120 resorts and ~700,000 owner families, plus the Interval International exchange network of 3,200+ affiliated resorts with 1.5M members. Revenue of ~$5.0B in 2025 is 95% from the Vacation Ownership segment (VOI sales, resort management, rental, financing); Exchange & Third-Party Management provides the remaining 4%.

Related stocks: MLCO (Melco Resorts & Entertainment L) · MCRI (Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.) · RRR (Red Rock Resorts, Inc.) · WYNN (Wynn Resorts, Limited) · HGV (Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.)
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