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Red Rock Resorts, Inc. (RRR) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $53.47 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 10.5): -1.5; Concentration risk — Geographic: Las Vegas regional market.

Red Rock Resorts operates seven major gaming facilities (including Durango Casino & Resort) and 13 smaller casinos throughout the Las Vegas valley, catering primarily to local Las Vegas residents. Gaming is the principal revenue source, with approximately 80% of casino revenue... Read more

$53.47+21.1% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#8 of 12 Resorts & Casinos
Stop $50.04Target $64.69(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.3:1
Analyst target$71.88+34.4%16 analysts
$64.69our TP
$53.47price
$71.88mean
$80

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $53.47 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 10.5): -1.5; Concentration risk — Geographic: Las Vegas regional market. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 21%
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Las Vegas regional market
Leverage penalty (D/E 10.5): -1.5
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.4
P/E (Fwd)17.2
Mkt Cap$5.5B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn9.2%
ROE
Rev Growth1.9%
Beta
Dividend1.93%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C2.96bearish
IV55%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicLas Vegas regional market
    10-K Item 1A: 'As a result of our concentration in the Las Vegas regional market, we have greater exposure to a number of risks than we would have if we had operations outside of the Las Vegas valley.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
1.8
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.5
Revenue Growth
3.0
GatesMomentum 1.7<4.5A.R:R 3.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 88d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $51.59Resistance $59.08

Price Targets

$50
$65
A.Upside+21.0%
A.R:R3.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (88d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RRR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $53.47 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 10.5): -1.5; Concentration risk — Geographic: Las Vegas regional market. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $50.04. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

What is the RRR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $64.69 (+21.1% upside). Prior stop was $50.04. Stop-loss: $50.04.

What are the risks of investing in RRR?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Las Vegas regional market; Leverage penalty (D/E 10.5): -1.5; Weak growth.

Is RRR overvalued or undervalued?

Red Rock Resorts, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.4 (forward 17.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RRR?

19 analysts cover RRR with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $72.

What does Red Rock Resorts, Inc. do?Red Rock Resorts operates seven major gaming facilities (including Durango Casino & Resort) and 13 smaller casinos...

Red Rock Resorts operates seven major gaming facilities (including Durango Casino & Resort) and 13 smaller casinos throughout the Las Vegas valley, catering primarily to local Las Vegas residents. Gaming is the principal revenue source, with approximately 80% of casino revenue from slot play, supplemented by restaurants, hotels, and entertainment.

Related stocks: LVS (Las Vegas Sands Corp.) · MCRI (Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.) · MLCO (Melco Resorts & Entertainment L) · PENN (PENN Entertainment, Inc.) · MGM (MGM Resorts International)