Value
7.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
VAC · Why this verdict
Why Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.8 |
| Gross margin | 6.5 |
| Op margin | 5.7 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.7 |
| FCF quality | 5.2 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 6%, FCF yield 6.8%)
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.6 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 77)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 4.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $999,636 (0.033% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 0.9 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.4 |
| support resistance | 0.9 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.5 |
| days to cover | 5.5 |
| volatility | 1.6 |
| put call | 6.0 |
| implied vol | 1.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.9 |
| debt equity | 2.2 |
- ▸High IV: 74%
- ▸Above max pain $35
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.5 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 358.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:58d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.01
Upside
-15.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 1.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.01 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.0, Insider at 6.5, and Growth at 6.2; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.7, Technical at 3.9, and Peer rank at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.01 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.