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MCRIMonarch Casino & Resort, Inc.Sell6.3·$127.91-0.86%
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Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $127.91 — A.R:R is negative (-2.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.4% away).

Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. was incorporated in Nevada in 1993 and, along with its consolidated subsidiaries, is referred to collectively in this Annual Report on Form 10-K as "Monarch," "the Company," "we," "our," and "us." Monarch owns and operates the Atlantis Casino Resort... Read more

$127.91+0.4% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#2 of 12 Resorts & Casinos
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.74%
IncomeYield0.93%Payout20.34%sustainable
Stop $121.73Target $128.23(resistance)A.R:R -2.0:1
Analyst target$113.50-11.3%6 analysts
$128.23our TP
$127.91price
$113.50mean
$99

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $127.91 — A.R:R is negative (-2.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.4% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 30d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 15, 202630d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.4% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.9
P/E (Fwd)18.9
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA11.1
Profit Mgn19.6%
ROE20.1%
Rev Growth8.9%
Beta1.35
Dividend0.93%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.09bearish
IV71%elevated
Max Pain$55-57.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -2.0=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 30d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
78 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $113.14Resistance $130.85

Price Targets

$122
$128
A.Upside+0.3%
A.R:R-2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-22.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-15 (30d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MCRI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $127.91 — A.R:R is negative (-2.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.4% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $121.73. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MCRI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $128.23 (+0.4% upside). Prior stop was $121.73. Stop-loss: $121.73.

What are the risks of investing in MCRI?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.4% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5.

Is MCRI overvalued or undervalued?

Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.9 (forward 18.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MCRI?

12 analysts cover MCRI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $114.

What does Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. do?Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. was incorporated in Nevada in 1993 and, along with its consolidated subsidiaries, is...

Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. was incorporated in Nevada in 1993 and, along with its consolidated subsidiaries, is referred to collectively in this Annual Report on Form 10-K as "Monarch," "the Company," "we," "our," and "us." Monarch owns and operates the Atlantis Casino Resort Spa, a hotel and casino in Reno, Nevada (the "Atlantis") and the Monarch Casino Resort Spa Black Hawk (the "Monarch Black Hawk"), a hotel and casino in Black Hawk, Colorado.

Related stocks: MLCO (Melco Resorts & Entertainment L) · HGV (Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.) · WYNN (Wynn Resorts, Limited) · RRR (Red Rock Resorts, Inc.) · VAC (Marriott Vacations Worldwide Co)
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