US Foods has maintained strong price momentum above its 200-day moving average with rising volume and 3 earnings beats in 4 quarters, but thin business quality metrics, sub-1% operating margins, and an asymmetry ratio well below the minimum acceptable threshold suggest the current price offers poor risk-adjusted entry.
Thesis pillars
- Momentum Breadth Strength↑Improving
- Thin Margins Quality Floor→Stable
- Earnings Beat Consistency→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $100.73: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
US Foods distributes food and foodservice products to approximately 250,000 customer locations through 70+ distribution facilities and a fleet of 6,500+ trucks. The company generated $39.4 billion in net sales in fiscal year 2025 with no single customer exceeding 2% of total... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $100.73: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-30Recent Developments — US Foods Holding Corp.
Latest news
- NEWS USFD Launches SIGNATURE Program to Support Hospitality Operators - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS US Foods (USFD) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS US Foods (USFD) Projected to Post Quarterly Earnings on Thursday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS AB Large Cap Value Fund's US Foods Holding Corp(USFD) Holding History - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS UBS Group AG Lowers Holdings in US Foods Holding Corp. $USFD - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-07-30T22:23:48Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerGPO customers27%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 27% of our net sales in fiscal year 2025 were made to customers under terms negotiated by GPOs'
- LOWCustomersingle largest GPO customers14%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 14% of our net sales in fiscal year 2025 that were made to customers that are members of a single GPO'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $100.73: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $94.94. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $103.07 (-5.6% upside). Prior stop was $94.94. Stop-loss: $94.94.
Target reached (-5.6% upside); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 4.2%), Material insider selling (25 sells, 0.12% of cap).
US Foods Holding Corp. trades at a P/E of 34.5 (forward 18.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover USFD with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $106.
What does US Foods Holding Corp. do?US Foods distributes food and foodservice products to approximately 250,000 customer locations through 70+ distribution...
US Foods distributes food and foodservice products to approximately 250,000 customer locations through 70+ distribution facilities and a fleet of 6,500+ trucks. The company generated $39.4 billion in net sales in fiscal year 2025 with no single customer exceeding 2% of total sales; group purchasing organizations represented about 27% of net sales, with roughly 14% from customers of a single GPO.