Value
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.2 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.9 |
| PEG | 3.6 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.4x
- ▸PEG: 3.21
USFD · Why this verdict
Why US Foods Holding (USFD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
US Foods has maintained strong price momentum above its 200-day moving average with rising volume and 3 earnings beats in 4 quarters, but thin business quality metrics, sub-1% operating margins, and an asymmetry ratio well below the minimum acceptable threshold suggest the current price offers poor risk-adjusted entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
US Foods trades well above its 200-day moving average with a bullish MACD, rising on-balance volume, and an RSI of 82 indicating strong sustained buying, supporting the idea that institutional investors are accumulating shares. Momentum breakdown | The stock should remain above $88.74 and maintain its uptrend for at least the next 6 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn RSI of 82 is significantly overbought and often precedes a pullback, and the stock is trading above maximum options pain at $70 by a large margin, both suggesting near-term mean-reversion risk. | ||
US Foods operates with an operating margin below 1% and a net margin also below 1%, reflecting the structural reality of food distribution as a low-margin, high-volume business where small disruptions can rapidly pressure profitability. Quality breakdown | Operating margin should remain above 0.5% over the next 12 months as pricing and logistics efficiencies are maintained. | →Stable |
| CounterFood distribution companies routinely operate at sub-1% net margins and compensate through high asset turnover and volume; this is a sector characteristic, not a unique weakness. | ||
US Foods beat analyst earnings expectations in 3 of the last 4 quarters with positive surprises, demonstrating the ability to manage costs and revenue in the highly competitive food distribution industry. Earnings | The company should beat earnings consensus in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter was a miss at -3.6% surprise, and operating margins are below 1%, leaving very little cushion if revenue growth or cost management disappoints. | ||
With only 3.4% upside to the analyst target and 5% downside to the stop-loss, the reward-to-risk ratio of 0.68 is well below the minimum 1.5 threshold, meaning the market has priced in most of the near-term good news. Warnings | The analyst consensus price target should be revised above $105 to restore a reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterStrong momentum and high analyst ratings (8.64 on a 10-point scale) suggest continued institutional support that could drive prices beyond current targets in a continued risk-on environment. | ||
US Foods trades well above its 200-day moving average with a bullish MACD, rising on-balance volume, and an RSI of 82 indicating strong sustained buying, supporting the idea that institutional investors are accumulating shares.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock should remain above $88.74 and maintain its uptrend for at least the next 6 months.
CounterAn RSI of 82 is significantly overbought and often precedes a pullback, and the stock is trading above maximum options pain at $70 by a large margin, both suggesting near-term mean-reversion risk.
US Foods operates with an operating margin below 1% and a net margin also below 1%, reflecting the structural reality of food distribution as a low-margin, high-volume business where small disruptions can rapidly pressure profitability.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margin should remain above 0.5% over the next 12 months as pricing and logistics efficiencies are maintained.
CounterFood distribution companies routinely operate at sub-1% net margins and compensate through high asset turnover and volume; this is a sector characteristic, not a unique weakness.
US Foods beat analyst earnings expectations in 3 of the last 4 quarters with positive surprises, demonstrating the ability to manage costs and revenue in the highly competitive food distribution industry.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company should beat earnings consensus in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe most recent quarter was a miss at -3.6% surprise, and operating margins are below 1%, leaving very little cushion if revenue growth or cost management disappoints.
With only 3.4% upside to the analyst target and 5% downside to the stop-loss, the reward-to-risk ratio of 0.68 is well below the minimum 1.5 threshold, meaning the market has priced in most of the near-term good news.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- The analyst consensus price target should be revised above $105 to restore a reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5.
CounterStrong momentum and high analyst ratings (8.64 on a 10-point scale) suggest continued institutional support that could drive prices beyond current targets in a continued risk-on environment.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.5 |
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.7 |
| Net margin | 0.9 |
| Current ratio | 4.4 |
| FCF quality | 7.5 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
5.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
| EPS growth | 7.8 |
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.6 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 7.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=1)
Insider
6.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 8.1 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $3,639,381 (0.017% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 6.7 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.8 |
| support resistance | 1.7 |
| 52w position | 8.3 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.3 |
| days to cover | 4.6 |
| volatility | 6.4 |
| put call | 7.1 |
| implied vol | 6.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.9 |
| debt equity | 4.5 |
- ▸Above max pain $70
Catalyst
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.6 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.22
Upside
+2.4%
Downside
10.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.2<1.5@spot outcome against Sentiment at 7.3 and asymmetric R:R of 0.22.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.3, Insider at 6.7, and Growth at 5.7; the weakest are Quality at 3.9, Peer rank at 4.6, and Technical at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.22 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Momentum Breadth Strength
Trip ifPrice drops below $88.74, more than 5% below the current $93.44.
- P2Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -5% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Thin Margins Quality Floor
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 0.3% in any of the next 4 reported quarters.
- P4Poor Risk Reward Asymmetry
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target remains below $100 for more than 6 consecutive months.