Performance Food Group converts income to free cash flow at 224% and carries strong earnings growth potential, but quality scores fall below minimum thresholds at 3.6 out of 10, the stock has missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and prices are at analyst resistance with no upside remaining.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Below Floor↓Deteriorating
- Exceptional Fcf Conversion→Stable
- Earnings Miss Pattern 3 Of 4↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Aug 12, 2026
Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $96.24: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 1.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 9.50; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Performance Food Group distributes more than 300,000 food and food-related products from over 150 distribution centers to over 350,000 customer locations in North America, through Foodservice (restaurants, schools, institutions), Convenience (convenience stores, with cigarettes... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $96.24: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 1.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 9.50; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About Performance Food Group Company
About Performance Food Group Company
Performance Food Group distributes more than 300,000 food and food-related products from over 150 distribution centers to over 350,000 customer locations across North America, with over 44,000 employees. The company runs three segments: Foodservice with 90 distribution centers, Convenience with 38 distribution centers and six redistribution centers in the U.S. and Canada, and Specialty with 26 distribution centers. No customer exceeded 10% of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2026, 2025 or 2024.
Customers range from independent and chain restaurants to schools, vending and office coffee distributors, convenience stores, drug stores and theaters. Pricing is set either by contract, as a percentage markup or fixed markup per unit over cost, or at the time of order, and inventory turns every three to four weeks, so cost changes pass through quickly. Independent restaurants generate higher gross profit per case because they use more value-added services and more of the proprietary Performance Brands, which carry higher margins than national brands. Suppliers are mostly large corporations that sell national brands, and the company typically holds no long-term supply contracts. Rebates and promotional incentives from suppliers are described as a significant source of profitability. Product cost inflation of 4.5% in fiscal 2026 lifted selling prices, while fuel expense rose $57.1 million, and collars covered about 5% of expected diesel gallons with a swap for another 15% added after fiscal year-end.
Show full overview
Customer stickiness and category mix deserve scrutiny. Many customers buy through individual purchase orders without long-term agreements, so they may switch distributors for lower prices or better service, and group purchasing organizations have pushed for price concessions and could add more independent restaurants. In Convenience, a significant portion of sales volume depends on cigarettes and other tobacco products, consumption of which has been declining in the United States for decades as e-vapor and oral nicotine alternatives grow. If the company cannot replace that volume with other products, earnings in a low-margin distribution model might weaken faster than net sales.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution
From Performance Food Group Company's most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 18, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Performance Food Group Company
Latest news
- NEWS Here’s How Much You Would Have Made Owning Performance Food Group Stock In The Last 10 Years — benzinga Oct 23, 2026 neutral
- NEWS VISTAR Warehouse Workers Vote to Join Teamsters — fiscal.ai Oct 19, 2026 neutral
- NEWS $1000 Invested In Performance Food Group 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today — benzinga Oct 19, 2026 positive
- NEWS Billionaire Investor Dan Loeb’s Third Point Bought Stakes in Two Food Distributors in One Quarter — Here’s What’s Happen — benzinga Oct 16, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Morgan Stanley Maintains Overweight on Performance Food Group, Raises Price Target to $136 — benzinga Oct 15, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:48:40Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductcigarettes and other tobacco products10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our sales volume depends upon the distribution of cigarettes and other tobacco products'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-08-24Item 5.02LOWDirector Scott D. Ferguson, on the Board since September 2025, resigned from the Board and its committees effective August 24, 2026. No disagreement with the company cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-08-20Item 5.02LOWBoard elected George L. Holm to move from Executive Chair to Non-Executive Chair effective January 1, 2027. Separately, Matthew Flanigan becomes Lead Independent Director and four directors will not stand for reelection, shrinking the Board from 14 to 10.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $96.24: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 1.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 9.50; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $91.80. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $107.81 (+12.0% upside). Prior stop was $91.80. Stop-loss: $91.80.
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).
Performance Food Group Company trades at a P/E of 42.0 (forward 14.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover PFGC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $124.
What does Performance Food Group Company do?Performance Food Group distributes more than 300,000 food and food-related products from over 150 distribution centers...
Performance Food Group distributes more than 300,000 food and food-related products from over 150 distribution centers to over 350,000 customer locations in North America, through Foodservice (restaurants, schools, institutions), Convenience (convenience stores, with cigarettes a significant share of volume) and Specialty (vending, office coffee, theaters) segments. It earns a markup on product cost, with proprietary Performance Brands and independent restaurants carrying higher margins. No customer exceeded 10% of net sales.