The Vita Coco Company, Inc. (COCO) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
Sell if holding. At $67.15, A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: coconut water (96.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Tetra Pak.
The Vita Coco Company markets coconut water and other plant-based beverages, with Vita Coco holding greater than 40% U.S. market share in coconut water. The Americas segment generated approximately 83% of 2025 revenues. Revenue derives from branded products and Private Label... Read more
Sell if holding. At $67.15, A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: coconut water (96.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Tetra Pak. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductcoconut water96%10-K Item 1A: 'Our coconut water accounted for 96% of our revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025.'
- MEDIUMCustomerlargest distributor and retail-direct customer44%10-K Item 1A: 'our largest distributor customer and the largest retail-direct customer together accounted for approximately 44% of our total net sales as of December 31, 2025.'
- HIGHSupplierTetra Pak10-K Item 1A: 'The majority of our products are produced and packaged with materials sourced from a single supplier, Tetra Pak.'
- HIGHGeographicAmericas operating segment83%10-K Item 1A: 'Our financial performance is largely dependent on our Americas operating segment, which accounted for approximately 83% of consolidated total net revenue in fiscal year 2025.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-22Item 5.02LOWShelley Broader appointed to Audit Committee and Compensation Committee effective June 3, 2026, following 2026 Annual Meeting. Amendment to Jan 8, 2026 8-K which announced her board appointment. No officer departure.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-10Item 5.02LOWDirector John Leahy retiring from Board and not standing for re-election at 2026 Annual Meeting June 3, 2026. Decision solely for personal reasons; no disagreement cited. Board size to reduce from 10 to 9 directors.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $67.15, A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: coconut water (96.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Tetra Pak. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $62.33. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $68.19 (+1.7% upside). Prior stop was $62.33. Stop-loss: $62.33.
Concentration risk — Product: coconut water (96.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Tetra Pak; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
The Vita Coco Company, Inc. trades at a P/E of 47.8 (forward 33.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
17 analysts cover COCO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $62.
What does The Vita Coco Company, Inc. do?The Vita Coco Company markets coconut water and other plant-based beverages, with Vita Coco holding greater than 40%...
The Vita Coco Company markets coconut water and other plant-based beverages, with Vita Coco holding greater than 40% U.S. market share in coconut water. The Americas segment generated approximately 83% of 2025 revenues. Revenue derives from branded products and Private Label supply to major retailers.