Vita Coco is a high-quality, fast-growing coconut water brand with a perfect earnings beat streak and a 21.7% gap to the analyst target, offset by near-total reliance on one product, 16% short interest and a stock still below its 200-day average.
Thesis pillars
- Pullback High Short Interest↓Deteriorating
- High Quality Compounder Economics↓Deteriorating
- Fast Revenue Growth Beat Streak→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026
The Vita Coco Company, Inc. (COCO) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Temporary headwind edge
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
Wait for pullback to $53.33. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $56.37. Engine's entry $53.33 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: coconut water (96.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas segment (83.0%).
Vita Coco pioneered packaged coconut water in 2004 and holds greater than 40% U.S. market share; coconut water generated 96% of revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025. The Americas segment contributed approximately 83% of consolidated net revenue, while the company also... Read more
Wait for pullback to $53.33. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $56.37. Engine's entry $53.33 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: coconut water (96.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas segment (83.0%). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.55, quality 8.0/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.6/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 110d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
About The Vita Coco Company, Inc.
About The Vita Coco Company, Inc.
Vita Coco holds greater than 40% market share in U.S. coconut water per Circana data for the 52 weeks ended December 28, 2025, and 80% market share in the U.K.; coconut water products generated 96% of total net revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025. The Americas segment—primarily U.S. and Canada—contributed approximately 83% of consolidated net revenue. The company employed 336 full-time employees at year-end across operations in the U.S., Europe, and Asia.
Vita Coco earns revenue through branded sales of Vita Coco coconut water products plus a Private Label coconut water and coconut oil business supplied directly to major retailers. Branded products reach consumers through club stores, supermarkets, drug stores, convenience stores, e-commerce platforms, and foodservice channels in North America and Europe; outside North America the company uses importers and distributors, including the Coco Ventures joint venture with the Jebsen Group in China. The Private Label segment—rebid regularly by retailers and subject to abrupt regional shifts—provides supply-chain scale without diluting the Vita Coco brand. Input costs are dominated by coconut water sourced through 16 contract factories across six countries including the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam, Brazil, and Malaysia. The majority of products are packaged using Tetra Pak materials. Competition in the U.S. includes large beverage companies such as The Coca-Cola Company and PepsiCo alongside coconut water brands including Goya, Harmless Harvest, Zico, and C20.
Show full overview
Customer concentration is the sharpest structural risk: the largest distributor and the largest retail-direct customer together accounted for approximately 44% of total net sales at December 31, 2025, while no other customer exceeded 10%. The largest retail-direct agreement permits either party to terminate without cause after the initial term and imposes no minimum purchase requirement. Earlier in 2024, a significant customer discontinued its Private Label coconut oil supply relationship, and Vita Coco experienced a loss of Private Label coconut water regions with this same customer in 2025, illustrating the abrupt and unpredictable nature of these account relationships.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
From The Vita Coco Company, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — The Vita Coco Company, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Vita Coco Rides the Shift Toward Everyday Hydration and Premium Growth - TradingView — TradingView positive
- NEWS Vita Coco Rides the Shift Toward Everyday Hydration and Premium Growth - tradingview.com — tradingview.com positive
- NEWS Is COCO Stock Worth Buying After Its 2026 Earnings Outlook Upgrade? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Is COCO Stock Worth Buying After Its 2026 Earnings Outlook Upgrade? - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
- NEWS Is COCO Stock Worth Buying After Its 2026 Earnings Outlook Upgrade? - TradingView — TradingView positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:31Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductcoconut water96%10-K Item 1A: 'Our coconut water accounted for 96% of our revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025.'
- HIGHGeographicAmericas segment83%10-K Item 1A: 'our Americas operating segment, which accounted for approximately 83% of consolidated total net revenue in fiscal year 2025'
- MEDIUMCustomertop-2 customers (distributor + retail-direct)44%10-K Item 1A: 'our largest distributor customer and the largest retail-direct customer together accounted for approximately 44% of our total net sales as of December 31, 2025'
- HIGHSupplierTetra Pak packaging10-K Item 1A: 'The majority of our products are produced and packaged with materials sourced from a single supplier, Tetra Pak.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-22Item 5.02LOWDirector Shelley Broader (appointed January 7, 2026) assigned to the Audit Committee and Compensation Committee effective June 3, 2026, following the 2026 Annual Meeting. Routine committee assignment; no departure.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-10Item 5.02LOWDirector John Leahy (Board member since 2019) retiring and will not stand for reelection at the June 3, 2026 Annual Meeting. Decision made for personal reasons; no disagreement with company operations, policies, or practices cited. Board size reduces from 10 to 9.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $53.33. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $56.37. Engine's entry $53.33 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: coconut water (96.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas segment (83.0%). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.55, quality 8.0/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $68.82 (+22.1%), stop $49.60 (−13.6%), A.R:R 2.0:1. Score 6.6/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $68.82 (+22.1% upside). Target $68.82 (+22.1%), stop $49.60 (−13.6%), A.R:R 2.0:1. Stop-loss: $49.60.
Concentration risk — Product: coconut water (96.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas segment (83.0%); Negative momentum.
The Vita Coco Company, Inc. trades at a P/E of 28.5 (forward 24.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
17 analysts cover COCO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $79.
What does The Vita Coco Company, Inc. do?Vita Coco pioneered packaged coconut water in 2004 and holds greater than 40% U.S. market share; coconut water...
Vita Coco pioneered packaged coconut water in 2004 and holds greater than 40% U.S. market share; coconut water generated 96% of revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025. The Americas segment contributed approximately 83% of consolidated net revenue, while the company also sells Private Label products to major retailers through an asset-light contract manufacturing network spanning 16 factories in six countries.