The Vita Coco Company, Inc. (COCO) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
Sell if holding. At $81.02, A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: coconut water (96.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas segment (83.0%).
Vita Coco pioneered packaged coconut water in 2004 and holds greater than 40% U.S. market share; coconut water generated 96% of revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025. The Americas segment contributed approximately 83% of consolidated net revenue, while the company also... Read more
Sell if holding. At $81.02, A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: coconut water (96.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas segment (83.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 45d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About The Vita Coco Company, Inc.
About The Vita Coco Company, Inc.
Vita Coco holds greater than 40% market share in U.S. coconut water per Circana data for the 52 weeks ended December 28, 2025, and 80% market share in the U.K.; coconut water products generated 96% of total net revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025. The Americas segment—primarily U.S. and Canada—contributed approximately 83% of consolidated net revenue. The company employed 336 full-time employees at year-end across operations in the U.S., Europe, and Asia.
Vita Coco earns revenue through branded sales of Vita Coco coconut water products plus a Private Label coconut water and coconut oil business supplied directly to major retailers. Branded products reach consumers through club stores, supermarkets, drug stores, convenience stores, e-commerce platforms, and foodservice channels in North America and Europe; outside North America the company uses importers and distributors, including the Coco Ventures joint venture with the Jebsen Group in China. The Private Label segment—rebid regularly by retailers and subject to abrupt regional shifts—provides supply-chain scale without diluting the Vita Coco brand. Input costs are dominated by coconut water sourced through 16 contract factories across six countries including the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam, Brazil, and Malaysia. The majority of products are packaged using Tetra Pak materials. Competition in the U.S. includes large beverage companies such as The Coca-Cola Company and PepsiCo alongside coconut water brands including Goya, Harmless Harvest, Zico, and C20.
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Customer concentration is the sharpest structural risk: the largest distributor and the largest retail-direct customer together accounted for approximately 44% of total net sales at December 31, 2025, while no other customer exceeded 10%. The largest retail-direct agreement permits either party to terminate without cause after the initial term and imposes no minimum purchase requirement. Earlier in 2024, a significant customer discontinued its Private Label coconut oil supply relationship, and Vita Coco experienced a loss of Private Label coconut water regions with this same customer in 2025, illustrating the abrupt and unpredictable nature of these account relationships.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
From The Vita Coco Company, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-14Recent Developments — The Vita Coco Company, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Vita Coco Company stock hits all-time high at 61.4 USD - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
- NEWS Vita Coco Stock Slides Despite Brighter Profit Outlook - TipRanks — TipRanks negative
- NEWS Vita Coco shares eye record high on growing demand for coconut water (COCO:NASDAQ) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Vita Coco Company, Inc. (COCO) Beats Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Moody Aldrich Partners LLC Sells 25,369 Shares of Vita Coco Company, Inc. $COCO - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductcoconut water96%10-K Item 1A: 'Our coconut water accounted for 96% of our revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025.'
- HIGHGeographicAmericas segment83%10-K Item 1A: 'our Americas operating segment, which accounted for approximately 83% of consolidated total net revenue in fiscal year 2025'
- MEDIUMCustomertop-2 customers (distributor + retail-direct)44%10-K Item 1A: 'our largest distributor customer and the largest retail-direct customer together accounted for approximately 44% of our total net sales as of December 31, 2025'
- HIGHSupplierTetra Pak packaging10-K Item 1A: 'The majority of our products are produced and packaged with materials sourced from a single supplier, Tetra Pak.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-22Item 5.02LOWDirector Shelley Broader (appointed January 7, 2026) assigned to the Audit Committee and Compensation Committee effective June 3, 2026, following the 2026 Annual Meeting. Routine committee assignment; no departure.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-10Item 5.02LOWDirector John Leahy (Board member since 2019) retiring and will not stand for reelection at the June 3, 2026 Annual Meeting. Decision made for personal reasons; no disagreement with company operations, policies, or practices cited. Board size reduces from 10 to 9.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $81.02, A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: coconut water (96.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas segment (83.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $75.24. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $80.68 (-0.3% upside). Prior stop was $75.24. Stop-loss: $75.24.
Concentration risk — Product: coconut water (96.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas segment (83.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
The Vita Coco Company, Inc. trades at a P/E of 58.6 (forward 39.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
17 analysts cover COCO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $75.
What does The Vita Coco Company, Inc. do?Vita Coco pioneered packaged coconut water in 2004 and holds greater than 40% U.S. market share; coconut water...
Vita Coco pioneered packaged coconut water in 2004 and holds greater than 40% U.S. market share; coconut water generated 96% of revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025. The Americas segment contributed approximately 83% of consolidated net revenue, while the company also sells Private Label products to major retailers through an asset-light contract manufacturing network spanning 16 factories in six countries.