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TSLATesla, Inc.Sell4.2·$409.00+4.60%
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Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $409.00 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3).

We are focused on bringing artificial intelligence ("AI") into the real world, through products and services like Full Self-Driving ("FSD") (Supervised) and Robotaxi, as well as working to develop and commercialize AI robots ("Bots") (including Optimus).

$409.00+8.7% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#14 of 16 Auto Manufacturers
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield0.36%
Stop $380.32Target $444.33(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$419.94+2.7%41 analysts
$444.33our TP
$409.00price
$419.94mean
$123
$600

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $409.00 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.2/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-08
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)358.7
P/E (Fwd)156.1
Mkt Cap$1.47T
EV/EBITDA129.8
Profit Mgn3.9%
ROE4.9%
Rev Growth15.8%
Beta1.80
DividendNone
Rating analysts60

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.78neutral
IV61%elevated
Max Pain$305-25.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Forward Pe
1.0
Peg Ratio
2.0
Analyst Target
4.0
Forward P/E: 156.1xPEG: 5.76Expensive valuation

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.3
Ma Position
4.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $388.59Resistance $453.40

Price Targets

$380
$444
A.Upside+8.6%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.5% upside)
! momentum at 2.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TSLA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $409.00 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $380.32. Score 4.2/10, high confidence.

What is the TSLA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $444.33 (+8.7% upside). Prior stop was $380.32. Stop-loss: $380.32.

What are the risks of investing in TSLA?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is TSLA overvalued or undervalued?

Tesla, Inc. trades at a P/E of 358.7 (forward 156.1). TrendMatrix value score: 1.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TSLA?

60 analysts cover TSLA with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $420.

What does Tesla, Inc. do?We are focused on bringing artificial intelligence ("AI") into the real world, through products and services like Full...

We are focused on bringing artificial intelligence ("AI") into the real world, through products and services like Full Self-Driving ("FSD") (Supervised) and Robotaxi, as well as working to develop and commercialize AI robots ("Bots") (including Optimus).

Related stocks: TM (Toyota Motor Corporation) · AMZN (Amazon.com, Inc.) · TJX (TJX Companies, Inc. (The)) · MCD (McDonald's Corporation) · BABA (Alibaba Group Holding Limited)
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