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HDHome Depot, Inc. (The)Sell4.9·$310.56-0.07%
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Home Depot, Inc. (The) (HD) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Home Improvement Retail

Sell if holding. At $310.56, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.6%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

We offer our customers a wide assortment of home improvement products, building materials, lawn and garden products, décor products, and facilities MRO products, in stores and online. We also provide a number of services, including home improvement installation services, and... Read more

$310.56+9.6% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#2 of 3 Home Improvement Retail
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield3.27%
IncomeYield3.00%(5y avg 2.37%)Payout65.55%
Stop $294.26Target $340.57(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$370.18+19.2%33 analysts
$340.57our TP
$310.56price
$370.18mean
$430

Sell if holding. At $310.56, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.6%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-08
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 18, 202671d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.6%
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.6): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.1
P/E (Fwd)19.3
Mkt Cap$309.9B
EV/EBITDA14.9
Profit Mgn8.4%
ROE128.4%
Rev Growth4.8%
Beta0.97
Dividend3.00%
Rating analysts46

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.42bearish
IV42%normal
Max Pain$220-29.2% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.1
Revenue Growth
3.7

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
3.0
Bollinger
3.9
52w Position
4.9
GatesA.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.5>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $286.95Resistance $320.75

Price Targets

$294
$341
A.Upside+9.7%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 1.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-18 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $310.56, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.6%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Prior stop was $294.26. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

What is the HD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $340.57 (+9.6% upside). Prior stop was $294.26. Stop-loss: $294.26.

What are the risks of investing in HD?

Thin upside margin: 9.6%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 4.6): -1.5.

Is HD overvalued or undervalued?

Home Depot, Inc. (The) trades at a P/E of 22.1 (forward 19.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HD?

46 analysts cover HD with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $370.

What does Home Depot, Inc. (The) do?We offer our customers a wide assortment of home improvement products, building materials, lawn and garden products,...

We offer our customers a wide assortment of home improvement products, building materials, lawn and garden products, décor products, and facilities MRO products, in stores and online. We also provide a number of services, including home improvement installation services, and tool and equipment rental. As of the end of fiscal 2025, we operated 2,359 stores located throughout the U.S. (including the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the territories of the U.S.

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