Toyota Motor offers deep valuation at a forward price-to-earnings of 11.4x and PEG of 0.49 with 42% analyst-implied upside, but a falling-knife price pattern, negative free cash flow quality, and an extremely elevated put/call ratio of 24.86 signal significant near-term risk.
Thesis pillars
- Deep Value Low Forward Pe→Stable
- Falling Knife Pattern Risk→Stable
- Extremely Elevated Put Call↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $194.85: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, the Middle East, and internationally.... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $194.85: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Toyota Motor Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Toyota September Global Production Falls 3.2% YoY To 889,079 Vehicles, Japan Output Up 5.8% To 319,195, Overseas Output — benzinga Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS Toyota Unveils Crown Signia GT-S Performance Concept at SEMA 2026 — fiscal.ai Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Toyota and Honda Testing Humanoid Robots in Japanese Factories — fiscal.ai Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS 'Govt Urges Toyota To Boost Vehicle Exports From Indonesia; Toyota Stressed The Need For Stimulus To Boost Spending Powe — benzinga Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Toyota Recalls 228,367 2022-2026 Sienna Hybrid 7-Passenger Vehicles Over Second-Row Seat Backs That May Fail To Remain S — benzinga Oct 27, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:52Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $194.85: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68. Prior stop was $188.99. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $198.97 (+2.1% upside). Prior stop was $188.99. Stop-loss: $188.99.
Target reached (2.1% upside); Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0).
Toyota Motor Corporation trades at a P/E of 8.6 (forward 12.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
26 analysts cover TM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $234.
What does Toyota Motor Corporation do?Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial...
Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, the Middle East, and internationally. The company operates through Automotive, Financial Services, and All Other segments. The company offers subcompact and compact cars; mini-vehicles; mid-size, luxury, sports, and specialty cars; recreational and sport-utility vehicles; pickup trucks; minivans; trucks; and buses. It also develops and sells battery and hybrid electric vehicles and batteries. In addition, the company provides financial services, such as retail financing and leasing, wholesale financing, insurance, and credit cards. Further, it operates GAZOO.com, a web portal for automobile information, as well as engages in telecommunications and other businesses. It offers vehicles under the Toyota and Lexus brand names. It has strategic manufacturing alliance with Joby Aviation, Inc. to establish a joint venture to realize air mobility. Toyota Motor Corporation was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Toyota, Japan.