Toyota Motor offers deep valuation at a forward price-to-earnings of 11.4x and PEG of 0.49 with 42% analyst-implied upside, but a falling-knife price pattern, negative free cash flow quality, and an extremely elevated put/call ratio of 24.86 signal significant near-term risk.
Thesis pillars
- Deep Value Low Forward Pe→Stable
- Falling Knife Pattern Risk→Stable
- Extremely Elevated Put Call↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $183.00: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, the Middle East, and internationally.... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $183.00: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-28Recent Developments — Toyota Motor Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Toyota Group's Global Sales Fall 7.36% YoY To 926,688 Units In June And 2.79% YoY To 5,390,484 Units For First Half Of 2 — benzinga Jul 30, 2026 negative
- NEWS Elizabeth Warren Slams Trump's 'Pattern of Corruption,' Cites United Airlines, Toyota $1 Million Inauguration Donations — benzinga Jul 30, 2026 negative
- NEWS Toyota’s New Partnership Deepens Its Fuel-Cell Ambitions, Stock Gains — benzinga Jul 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS Toyota To Become Equal One-Third Partner In Cellcentric Fuel Cell Joint Venture With Volvo And Daimler Truck — benzinga Jul 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS Tesla Just Had a Toyota-Sized Meltdown—JPMorgan, UBS Raise Red Flags — benzinga Jul 24, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-07-30T22:29:14Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $183.00: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55. Prior stop was $176.45. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $203.17 (+11.5% upside). Prior stop was $176.45. Stop-loss: $176.45.
Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0).
Toyota Motor Corporation trades at a P/E of 9.8 (forward 11.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
26 analysts cover TM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $239.
What does Toyota Motor Corporation do?Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial...
Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, the Middle East, and internationally. The company operates through Automotive, Financial Services, and All Other segments. The company offers subcompact and compact cars; mini-vehicles; mid-size, luxury, sports, and specialty cars; recreational and sport-utility vehicles; pickup trucks; minivans; trucks; and buses. It also develops and sells battery and hybrid electric vehicles and batteries. In addition, the company provides financial services, such as retail financing and leasing, wholesale financing, insurance, and credit cards. Further, it operates GAZOO.com, a web portal for automobile information, as well as engages in telecommunications and other businesses. It offers vehicles under the Toyota and Lexus brand names. It has strategic manufacturing alliance with Joby Aviation, Inc. to establish a joint venture to realize air mobility. Toyota Motor Corporation was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Toyota, Japan.