TJX Companies delivers a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak with 61% return on equity and strong institutional momentum, but the stock trades above its analyst target with negative upside asymmetry, making it a hold rather than a new buy at current prices.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Beat Streak High Roe→Stable
- Golden Cross Strong Momentum↓Deteriorating
- Rich Valuation Target Exceeded↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 31, 2026
TJX Companies, Inc. (The) (TJX) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $138.39 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
We have over 5,200 stores and six branded e-commerce sites that offer a rapidly changing assortment of quality, fashionable, brand name and designer merchandise at prices generally 20% to 60% below full-price retailers' (including department, specialty, and major online... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $138.39 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 20d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — TJX Companies, Inc. (The)
Material events (past 30 days)
- 8K Oct 20, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On October 15, 2026, The TJX Companies, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS TJX Companies gains as strong sales offset soft quarterly outlook (TJX:NYSE) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Should You Be Adding TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX) To Your Watchlist Today? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS TJX Companies: Another Strong Quarter, But Technical Concerns Mount (NYSE:TJX) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX) Shares Gap Down - Time to Sell? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS Why Is TJX Companies Stock Falling Wednesday? - TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX) - Benzinga — Benzinga negative
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:36Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-10-20Item 5.02MEDIUMDeparture of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On October 15, 2026, The TJX Companies, Inc.SEC filing →
- 2026-09-17Item 5.02MEDIUMDeparture of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On September 16, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of The TJX Companies, Inc. (the "Company") elected Craig A.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $138.39 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $133.15. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.
Analyst target: $154.28 (+11.5% upside). Prior stop was $133.15. Stop-loss: $133.15.
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Negative momentum.
TJX Companies, Inc. (The) trades at a P/E of 25.6 (forward 24.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
27 analysts cover TJX with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $171.
What does TJX Companies, Inc. (The) do?We have over 5,200 stores and six branded e-commerce sites that offer a rapidly changing assortment of quality,...
We have over 5,200 stores and six branded e-commerce sites that offer a rapidly changing assortment of quality, fashionable, brand name and designer merchandise at prices generally 20% to 60% below full-price retailers' (including department, specialty, and major online retailers) regular prices on comparable merchandise, every day.