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ROSTRoss Stores, Inc.Sell6.1·$227.98
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Ross Stores is an off-price apparel retailer with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, 39% return on equity, and 21% year-over-year earnings growth, currently trading at full value with essentially zero near-term upside to analyst resistance targets following a strong price run.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Earnings Growth 21 Pct—
  • Perfect Earnings Beat Streak Off Price↑Improving
  • Industry Leading Return On Equity→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 31, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

Sell if holding. At $227.98, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.3%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Ross Stores, Inc. and its subsidiaries ("we", "our", or the "Company") operate two brands of off-price retail apparel and home fashion stores-Ross Dress for Less® ("Ross") and dd's DISCOUNTS®.

$227.98+7.3% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#5 of 15 Apparel Retail
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.75%
IncomeYield0.77%(5y avg 1.01%)Payout20.56%sustainable
Stop $216.40Analyst target $244.65(−10% haircut)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst consensus$271.83+19.2%18 analysts
$244.65Analyst target
$227.98price
$271.83mean
$187
$315

Sell if holding. At $227.98, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.3%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 19, 2026Date unconfirmed· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.3%
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.6
P/E (Fwd)25.3
Mkt Cap$72.8B
EV/EBITDA20.0
Profit Mgn10.8%
ROE42.6%
Rev Growth13.3%
Beta0.84
Dividend0.77%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.12bearish
IV42%normal
Max Pain$135-40.8% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-09-17Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Resignation of Director (b) Effective on October 1, 2026, Ms. Sharon D.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.9
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.7
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
53 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $220.10Resistance $241.49

Price Targets

$216
$245
A.Upside+7.3%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-19 (Date unconfirmed)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ROST stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $227.98, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.3%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $216.40. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ROST stock price target?

Analyst target: $244.65 (+7.3% upside). Prior stop was $216.40. Stop-loss: $216.40.

What are the risks of investing in ROST?

Thin upside margin: 7.3%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is ROST overvalued or undervalued?

Ross Stores, Inc. trades at a P/E of 27.6 (forward 25.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ROST?

27 analysts cover ROST with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $272.

What does Ross Stores, Inc. do?Ross Stores, Inc. and its subsidiaries ("we", "our", or the "Company") operate two brands of off-price retail apparel...

Ross Stores, Inc. and its subsidiaries ("we", "our", or the "Company") operate two brands of off-price retail apparel and home fashion stores-Ross Dress for Less® ("Ross") and dd's DISCOUNTS®.

Related stocks: URBN (Urban Outfitters, Inc.) · BURL (Burlington Stores, Inc.) · VSXY (Victorias Secret & Co.) · GAP (Gap, Inc. (The)) · LULU (lululemon athletica inc.)
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