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EXPEExpedia Group, Inc.Hold6.4·$224.89+0.10%
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Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $224.89, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5.

Expedia Group is a global online travel marketplace with $14.7 billion in 2025 revenue through B2C brands (Expedia, Hotels.com, Vrbo), B2B technology partnerships, and hotel metasearch (trivago). Revenue split: merchant 70%, agency 22%, advertising 8%. The company has 3.6... Read more

$224.89+17.1% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#3 of 15 Travel Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield12.89%
IncomeYield0.78%(5y avg 0.96%)Payout14.84%sustainable
Stop $209.15Target $263.42(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$286.32+27.3%34 analysts
$263.42our TP
$224.89price
$286.32mean
$409

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $224.89, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 53d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202653d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.9
P/E (Fwd)9.7
Mkt Cap$27.0B
EV/EBITDA10.5
Profit Mgn9.8%
ROE71.5%
Rev Growth14.7%
Beta1.26
Dividend0.78%
Rating analysts44

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.44bullish
IV53%elevated
Max Pain$390+73.4% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-23Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CFO Scott Schenkel agreed to step down effective May 11, 2026; Derek Andersen (formerly CFO of Snap Inc.) appointed as successor CFO effective same date. Schenkel's departure not due to disagreement with the Company.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.3>=5.5A.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 53d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $205.91Resistance $234.84

Price Targets

$209
$263
A.Upside+17.1%
A.R:R2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (53d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EXPE stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $224.89, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $263.42 (+17.1%), stop $209.15 (−7.5%), A.R:R 2.0:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the EXPE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $263.42 (+17.1% upside). Target $263.42 (+17.1%), stop $209.15 (−7.5%), A.R:R 2.0:1. Stop-loss: $209.15.

What are the risks of investing in EXPE?

Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5.

Is EXPE overvalued or undervalued?

Expedia Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.9 (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about EXPE?

44 analysts cover EXPE with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $286.

What does Expedia Group, Inc. do?Expedia Group is a global online travel marketplace with $14.7 billion in 2025 revenue through B2C brands (Expedia,...

Expedia Group is a global online travel marketplace with $14.7 billion in 2025 revenue through B2C brands (Expedia, Hotels.com, Vrbo), B2B technology partnerships, and hotel metasearch (trivago). Revenue split: merchant 70%, agency 22%, advertising 8%. The company has 3.6 million lodging properties and 500+ airlines on its platforms.

Related stocks: BKNG (Booking Holdings Inc. Common St) · TCOM (Trip.com Group Limited) · RCL (Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.) · GBTG (Global Business Travel Group, I) · CCL (Carnival Corporation Ltd.)
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