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BKNGBooking Holdings Inc. Common StSell6.5·$147.94
SellModerate Confidence

Thesis pillars

  • Consistent Earnings Outperformance↓Deteriorating
  • Attractive Growth Adjusted Valuation→Stable
  • High Quality Margins And Balance Sheet→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Booking Holdings Inc. Common St (BKNG) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Temporary headwind edge

SellGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services

Earnings in 5 days (2026-11-03). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $147.94 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Our mission is to make it easier for everyone to experience the world. We aim to provide consumers with a best-in-class experience with tailored planning, payment, language, and other options seamlessly connecting them with our travel service provider partners. We offer these... Read more

$147.94+44.7% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#1 of 12 Travel Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.74%
IncomeYield1.12%Payout17.82%sustainable
Stop $141.89Analyst target $214.10(−8% haircut)A.R:R 6.7:1
Analyst consensus$232.71+57.3%35 analysts
$214.10Analyst target
$147.94price
$232.71mean
$301

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $147.94 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 20265d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.1 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.4
P/E (Fwd)12.0
Mkt Cap$114.6B
EV/EBITDA11.0
Profit Mgn25.5%
ROE—
Rev Growth8.1%
Beta1.13
Dividend1.12%
Rating analysts46

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.13bearish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$210+41.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume
5.1
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dA.R:R 6.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
34 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $146.28Resistance $168.49

Price Targets

$142
$214
A.Upside+44.7%
A.R:R6.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BKNG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $147.94 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $141.89. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BKNG stock price target?

Analyst target: $214.10 (+44.7% upside). Prior stop was $141.89. Stop-loss: $141.89.

What are the risks of investing in BKNG?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Negative momentum.

Is BKNG overvalued or undervalued?

Booking Holdings Inc. Common St trades at a P/E of 16.4 (forward 12.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BKNG?

46 analysts cover BKNG with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $233.

What does Booking Holdings Inc. Common St do?Our mission is to make it easier for everyone to experience the world. We aim to provide consumers with a best-in-class...

Our mission is to make it easier for everyone to experience the world. We aim to provide consumers with a best-in-class experience with tailored planning, payment, language, and other options seamlessly connecting them with our travel service provider partners. We offer these services through five primary consumer-facing brands: Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, KAYAK, and OpenTable:

Related stocks: EXPE (Expedia Group, Inc.) · VIK (Viking Holdings Ltd) · RCL (Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.) · CCL (Carnival Corporation Ltd.) · ABNB (Airbnb, Inc.)
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