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SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Gentherm is an auto-parts supplier at a 9.3x forward P/E with 847% FCF/NI and 46% upside to the analyst target, but it has no moat, is 97% automotive, missed EPS by 48% in October and trades in a downtrend.

Thesis pillars

  • Excellent Cash Conversion↓Deteriorating
  • Cheap Valuation Analyst Upside↓Deteriorating
  • Inconsistent Earnings↓Deteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 19, 2026

Full reasoning →

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Gentherm Inc (THRM) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellValueGrowthHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $33.16: Concentration risk — Product: Automotive segment (97.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: sales outside the United States (66.0%).

Gentherm is a global thermal management and pneumatic comfort technology supplier to the automotive industry, with products including Climate Control Seats, Climate Control Interiors, and Lumbar and Massage Comfort Solutions, plus a Medical segment selling patient temperature... Read more

$33.16+25.9% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#20 of 33 Auto Parts
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.42%
Stop $30.84Analyst target $41.76(−13% haircut)A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst consensus$48.00+44.8%7 analysts
$41.76Analyst target
$33.16price
$48.00mean
$53

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $33.16: Concentration risk — Product: Automotive segment (97.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: sales outside the United States (66.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 111d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Gentherm Inc

About Gentherm Inc

Gentherm's Automotive segment, spanning Climate Control Seats, Climate Control Interiors, and Lumbar and Massage Comfort Solutions, made up 97% of product revenue in 2025, with the Medical segment's patient temperature management systems accounting for the remainder. Lear Corporation and Adient plc, the company's two largest customers, generated $234 million and $164 million, respectively — 16% and 11% of product revenue — while sales to customers outside the United States, including Europe and Asia, made up 66% of product revenue. Gentherm employs 14,174 people across more than 30 locations in 13 countries, with Mexico (5,546 employees) its largest single-country workforce.

Gentherm sells primarily to Tier 1 automotive suppliers and OEMs under a business-award model in which winning a vehicle platform typically takes one to three years to reach mass production and then continues for the five-to-ten-year platform life; the company carries no meaningful order backlog because revenue is driven by just-in-time purchase orders close to production. Customer contracts generally include annual price-down requirements, so Gentherm must offset those reductions with its own cost savings to protect margins. On the input side, the company sources raw materials globally, including semiconductor chips and copper that cannot be substituted, and some components are single-sourced, creating supply-disruption risk under the industry's just-in-time manufacturing model. On January 29, 2026, Gentherm agreed to acquire Modine Manufacturing's Performance Technologies business through a Reverse Morris Trust structure, pending shareholder approval, financing for the spun-off entity, an IRS tax ruling, and other regulatory approvals.

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Two geographies carry disproportionate operational risk relative to their revenue share. Gentherm's Vynohradiv, Ukraine facility, near the Hungary border, produced approximately 5% of 2025 total revenue in cables, seat heaters, and steering wheel heaters, and the company has built a severity-level contingency plan with certain customers to relocate equipment if the war disrupts the plant or the Ukraine-Hungary border crossing its products depend on for delivery. Separately, more than 15% of 2025 product revenue came from China, a market where domestic OEMs are gaining share with lower-cost products and where Chinese government regulation can constrain repatriation of cash and favor domestic suppliers — meaning U.S.-China trade tensions and Chinese OEM pricing pressure both sit outside Gentherm's control even as the company treats China as a core growth market.

See also: Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

From Gentherm Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Feb 18, 2027111d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Positive momentum
Analyst upside: 26%
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Automotive segment (97.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: sales outside the United States (66.0%)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)118.4
P/E (Fwd)10.7
Mkt Cap$1.8B
EV/EBITDA10.8
Profit Mgn0.6%
ROE1.3%
Rev Growth4.7%
Beta1.37
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.03bullish
IV62%elevated
Max Pain$45+35.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerLear Corporation16%
    10-K Item 1: 'our revenues from sales to our two largest customers, Lear Corporation ("Lear") and Adient plc ("Adient") were $234 million and $164 million, respectively, representing 16% and 11% of our product revenues, respectively.'
  • LOWCustomerAdient plc11%
    10-K Item 1: 'our revenues from sales to our two largest customers, Lear Corporation ("Lear") and Adient plc ("Adient") were $234 million and $164 million, respectively, representing 16% and 11% of our product revenues, respectively.'
  • HIGHProductAutomotive segment97%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our Automotive segment represents 97% of our product revenues for each of the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023.'
  • HIGHGeographicsales outside the United States66%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, 66% of our product revenue was generated from sales to customers outside the United States (based on shipment destination), including Europe and Asia.'
  • LOWGeographicUkraine manufacturing facility5.0%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, 2024 and 2023, products manufactured at our Ukraine facility represented approximately 5%, 6% and 6% of the Company's total revenue'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-19Item 5.02LOW
    Shareholders approved an amendment to the 2023 Equity Incentive Plan increasing shares available for issuance by 1,700,000 at the May 14, 2026 annual meeting. Routine, board-approved plan amendment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.3
Support Resistance
0.7
52w Position
4.6

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.7
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.0
Quality Rank
2.1
Growth Rank
4.8
GatesExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.0>=5.5A.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 111d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
61 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $25.31Resistance $33.73

Price Targets

$31
$42
A.Upside+25.9%
A.R:R1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts15
Consensus3.9/5
Avg Target$48

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-02-18 (111d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is THRM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $33.16: Concentration risk — Product: Automotive segment (97.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: sales outside the United States (66.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $30.84. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the THRM stock price target?

Analyst target: $41.76 (+25.9% upside). Prior stop was $30.84. Stop-loss: $30.84.

What are the risks of investing in THRM?

Concentration risk — Product: Automotive segment (97.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: sales outside the United States (66.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2).

Is THRM overvalued or undervalued?

Gentherm Inc trades at a P/E of 118.4 (forward 10.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about THRM?

15 analysts cover THRM with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $48.

What does Gentherm Inc do?Gentherm is a global thermal management and pneumatic comfort technology supplier to the automotive industry, with...

Gentherm is a global thermal management and pneumatic comfort technology supplier to the automotive industry, with products including Climate Control Seats, Climate Control Interiors, and Lumbar and Massage Comfort Solutions, plus a Medical segment selling patient temperature management systems like Blanketrol. Automotive represents 97% of product revenue, with Lear Corporation and Adient plc as the two largest customers at 16% and 11% of 2025 product revenue, respectively, and 66% of product revenue coming from outside the United States. On January 29, 2026, Gentherm agreed to acquire Modine

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