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Atmus Filtration Technologies I (ATMU) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Earnings in 0 days (2026-05-01). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $48.57. At $55.28 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $48.57 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 8.3%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0.

Atmus Filtration Technologies manufactures Fleetguard-brand filtration products for commercial vehicles and off-highway equipment, with approximately 86% of $1,764.3 million in 2025 net sales from the aftermarket. Revenue is driven by OEM first-fit placement and recurring... Read more

$55.28+14.0% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#8 of 26 Auto Parts
Entry $48.57(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $42.49Target $59.68(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.8:1Setup A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$68.60+24.1%5 analysts
$59.68our TP
$55.28price
$68.60mean
$76

Wait for pullback to $48.57. At $55.28 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $48.57 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 8.3%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 3/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.3%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.6), Material insider selling (24 sells, 0.16% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.4
P/E (Fwd)19.7
Mkt Cap$5.2B
EV/EBITDA17.8
Profit Mgn11.8%
ROE68.5%
Rev Growth9.8%
Beta1.59
Dividend0.35%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C5.00bearish
IV56%elevated
Max Pain$33-41.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerCummins19%
    10-K Item 1A: 'net sales to Cummins, our largest customer, accounted for approximately 18.8% of our net sales'
  • MEDIUMCustomerPACCAR16%
    10-K Item 1A: 'net sales to PACCAR and the Traton Group accounted for approximately 16.3% and 11.5%, respectively, of our net sales'
  • MEDIUMCustomerTraton Group12%
    10-K Item 1A: 'net sales to PACCAR and the Traton Group accounted for approximately 16.3% and 11.5%, respectively, of our net sales'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-06Item 5.02LOW
    Heath Sharp appointed as an independent director on February 5, 2026. Board size increased from seven to eight. No reason cited for prior vacancy.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.9
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.1
Uptrend pullback (RSI 34) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5A.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $50.00Resistance $64.34

Price Targets

$42
$49
$60
A.Upside+8.0%
A.R:R0.8:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! Momentum score 3.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.8:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-01 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ATMU stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $48.57. At $55.28 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $48.57 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 8.3%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $59.68 (+8.0%), stop $42.49 (−30.1%), Setup A.R:R 2.0:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ATMU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $59.68 (+14.0% upside). Target $59.68 (+8.0%), stop $42.49 (−30.1%), Setup A.R:R 2.0:1. Stop-loss: $42.49.

What are the risks of investing in ATMU?

Thin upside margin: 8.3%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0; Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.6), Material insider selling (24 sells, 0.16% of cap).

Is ATMU overvalued or undervalued?

Atmus Filtration Technologies I trades at a P/E of 25.4 (forward 19.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ATMU?

11 analysts cover ATMU with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $69.

What does Atmus Filtration Technologies I do?Atmus Filtration Technologies manufactures Fleetguard-brand filtration products for commercial vehicles and off-highway...

Atmus Filtration Technologies manufactures Fleetguard-brand filtration products for commercial vehicles and off-highway equipment, with approximately 86% of $1,764.3 million in 2025 net sales from the aftermarket. Revenue is driven by OEM first-fit placement and recurring aftermarket replacement demand across a global footprint in over 25 countries.

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