Atlassian has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 19%, delivers 32% revenue growth with a Rule of 40 score of 57 and 26% free cash flow margins — but the stock is below its 200-day moving average with a momentum score of just 1.8, a serious 8-K corporate event was recently filed, and the death cross technical pattern is active.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Revenue Growth Fcf Positive→Stable
- Consistent Earnings Beat Pattern↓Deteriorating
- Severe Negative Technical Momentum↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Aug 14, 2026
Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Technology · Software - Application
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $220.12, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.3% away).
Atlassian sells team collaboration software, including Jira, Confluence, Loom, Jira Service Management and the Rovo AI platform, bundled into Collections on its Atlassian Cloud Platform. It serves more than 350,000 customers in over 200 countries, including over 85% of the... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $220.12, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.3% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About Atlassian Corporation
About Atlassian Corporation
More than 350,000 customers worldwide use Atlassian's team collaboration software, including over 85% of the Fortune 500, across more than 200 countries and territories. Founded in Sydney, Australia in 2002, the company reported that over 50% of its employees worked in research and development as of June 30, 2026, and that more than 50% of users across its core apps belong to business teams rather than software teams.
Atlassian sells apps such as Jira, Confluence, Loom, Jira Service Management, Bitbucket and Trello, plus AI agents, and increasingly packages them into Collections: Teamwork, Service, Strategy, Software and Product. Its Rovo AI offering, built on the Teamwork Graph data layer, is included at no additional cost for premium, enterprise and standard edition customers of Jira, Confluence, Jira Service Management and Teamwork Collection. New customers arrive mainly through a self-service flywheel with free trials and low entry pricing, while a direct sales force and a network of solution partners focus on large enterprise accounts. The majority of customers are on annual or monthly terms, so renewals and expansion drive results. The Atlassian Marketplace supports more than 6,000 third-party apps and integrations. The 10-K describes competition from large technology vendors, legacy service desk vendors and AI-native startups, noting that customers often use competing products alongside Atlassian's.
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Two transitions shape the outlook. First, Cloud is replacing Data Center: Atlassian stopped selling Data Center to new customers in March 2026, plans to stop term licenses and expansions to existing customers in March 2028, and aims to end maintenance and support in March 2029. The filing says higher hosting fees, discounts offered to migrating customers and free AI features may lower margins. Second, distribution depends on partners, since over 50% of fiscal 2026 revenue was derived from channel partners' sales efforts, so weaker partner relationships could weigh on growth.
See also: Technology · Software - Application
From Atlassian Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 18, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Atlassian Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Redditors Think Wall Street is Wrong About Atlassian (TEAM) - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Redditors Think Wall Street is Wrong About Atlassian (TEAM) - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
- NEWS Atlassian Price Target Maintained With a $130.00/Share by Macquarie - Moomoo — Moomoo positive
- NEWS Atlassian Price Target Maintained With a $130.00/Share by Macquarie - moomoo.com — moomoo.com positive
- NEWS Macquarie reiterates Atlassian stock rating ahead of earnings - Investing.com — Investing.com neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:36Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerchannel partners50%10-K Item 1A: 'we derived over 50% of our revenue from channel partners’ sales efforts'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $220.12, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.3% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Analyst target $209.35 reached (−4.9%), stop $204.71 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $209.35 reached (−4.9% from $220.12); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $209.35 reached (−4.9%), stop $204.71 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Stop-loss: $204.71.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.3% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9).
Atlassian Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 32.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Hold.
40 analysts cover TEAM with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $228.
What does Atlassian Corporation do?Atlassian sells team collaboration software, including Jira, Confluence, Loom, Jira Service Management and the Rovo AI...
Atlassian sells team collaboration software, including Jira, Confluence, Loom, Jira Service Management and the Rovo AI platform, bundled into Collections on its Atlassian Cloud Platform. It serves more than 350,000 customers in over 200 countries, including over 85% of the Fortune 500, using a self-service, land-and-expand model. Over 50% of fiscal 2026 revenue came from channel partners' sales efforts, and the Data Center product line is being phased out.