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Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $84.42 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Atlassian develops enterprise team collaboration software (Jira, Confluence, Loom, Rovo, etc.) serving 300,000+ customers across 200+ countries via a product-led flywheel model. Subscription revenue is ratable; R&D was 51% of fiscal 2025 revenue. No single customer exceeded 2%... Read more

$84.42+52.8% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#19 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield6.54%
Stop $80.19Target $131.73(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 3.5:1
Analyst target$143.18+69.6%31 analysts
$131.73our TP
$84.42price
$143.18mean
$480

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $84.42 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Atlassian Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T23:51:20Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0)
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)14.0
Mkt Cap$22.0B
EV/EBITDA-426.7
Profit Mgn-3.5%
ROE-19.3%
Rev Growth31.7%
Beta0.90
DividendNone
Rating analysts39

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.66bearish
IV79%elevated
Max Pain$58-31.3% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-11Item 2.05MEDIUM
    Atlassian announced restructuring eliminating ~10% of workforce. Estimated charges of $225-236M ($169-174M cash severance; $56-62M office-space exit). Purpose: rebalance to accelerate AI-era teamwork strategy.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-18Item 5.02MEDIUM
    James Chuong appointed as CFO effective March 30, 2026, succeeding to the principal financial officer role. Previously CFO at LinkedIn (Microsoft subsidiary) since July 2021. Successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Support Resistance
3.2
Bollinger
4.0
Gap
6.0

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.8
Value Rank
4.9
Growth Rank
8.5
Industry growth leader
GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $65.20Resistance $96.32

Price Targets

$80
$132
A.Upside+56.0%
A.R:R3.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 4.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TEAM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $84.42 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $80.19. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TEAM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $131.73 (+52.8% upside). Prior stop was $80.19. Stop-loss: $80.19.

What are the risks of investing in TEAM?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5.

Is TEAM overvalued or undervalued?

Atlassian Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 14.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TEAM?

39 analysts cover TEAM with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $143.

What does Atlassian Corporation do?Atlassian develops enterprise team collaboration software (Jira, Confluence, Loom, Rovo, etc.) serving 300,000+...

Atlassian develops enterprise team collaboration software (Jira, Confluence, Loom, Rovo, etc.) serving 300,000+ customers across 200+ countries via a product-led flywheel model. Subscription revenue is ratable; R&D was 51% of fiscal 2025 revenue. No single customer exceeded 2% of revenue.

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