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STWDSTARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. SSell5.7·$16.98-0.12%
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STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S (STWD) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Sell if holding. At $16.98, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Starwood Property Trust is a diversified real estate finance REIT (externally managed by Starwood Capital Group) with four segments: Commercial/Residential Lending, Infrastructure Lending, Property, and Investing & Servicing. It had $22.1B in total indebtedness and completed a... Read more

$16.98+4.0% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#6 of 17 REIT - Mortgage
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield11.29%(5y avg 9.46%)Payout202.11%
Stop $16.48Target $17.67(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$20.31+19.6%8 analysts
$17.67our TP
$16.98price
$20.31mean
$24

Sell if holding. At $16.98, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 41. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.0%
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.9
P/E (Fwd)8.9
Mkt Cap$6.5B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn60.5%
ROE5.3%
Rev Growth21.8%
Beta1.03
Dividend11.29%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.94neutral
IV64%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
4.5
Macd
6.4
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.7
Quality Rank
3.8
Growth Rank
5.5
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5A.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $16.76Resistance $17.48

Price Targets

$16
$18
A.Upside+4.1%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 2.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STWD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $16.98, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 41. Prior stop was $16.48. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the STWD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.67 (+4.0% upside). Prior stop was $16.48. Stop-loss: $16.48.

What are the risks of investing in STWD?

Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.

Is STWD overvalued or undervalued?

STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S trades at a P/E of 17.9 (forward 8.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about STWD?

15 analysts cover STWD with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $20.

What does STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S do?Starwood Property Trust is a diversified real estate finance REIT (externally managed by Starwood Capital Group) with...

Starwood Property Trust is a diversified real estate finance REIT (externally managed by Starwood Capital Group) with four segments: Commercial/Residential Lending, Infrastructure Lending, Property, and Investing & Servicing. It had $22.1B in total indebtedness and completed a $2.2B acquisition of Fundamental Income Properties in July 2025.

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