Starwood Property Trust reported 22% year-over-year earnings growth with a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, but the loan portfolio is 56.9% concentrated in power sector loans, momentum is negative with a death cross, and recent news has turned negative, compressing the investment case.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Earnings Growth→Stable
- Power Sector Loan Concentration↑Improving
- Death Cross Momentum Deterioration↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026
STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S (STWD) Stock Analysis
Sector Rotation edge
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $12.24 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Power (56.9%); Concentration risk — Geographic: South East.
Starwood Property Trust originates, acquires, and manages real estate debt and equity investments across four segments: Commercial and Residential Lending, Infrastructure Lending, Property (including the $2.2 billion Fundamental acquisition in July 2025), and Investing and... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $12.24 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Power (56.9%); Concentration risk — Geographic: South East. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S
About STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S
Starwood Property Trust held $19.70 billion in carrying value within its Commercial and Residential Lending Segment at December 31, 2025, with Multifamily accounting for 39.3% of collateral and Office at 18.1%. The July 2025 acquisition of Fundamental Income Properties for approximately $2.2 billion — inclusive of $1.3 billion of assumed debt — added 468 triple-net-lease properties spanning 12.3 million square feet across 44 states at 99.8% occupancy and a 17.1-year weighted-average lease base term.
Starwood Property Trust earns income across four segments. Commercial and Residential Lending generates net interest spread on first mortgage loans ($16.09 billion carrying value at December 31, 2025) and mezzanine loans, with a weighted-average commercial maturity of 2.7 years. Infrastructure Lending holds $2.88 billion in first-priority loans collateralized primarily by Power (56.9% of carrying value) and oil and gas midstream (27.5%), with a weighted-average maturity of 5.1 years. The Property Segment holds the Fundamental triple-net-lease portfolio alongside a medical office portfolio at 88.1% occupancy and the Woodstar Fund multifamily properties. Investing and Servicing manages $1.28 billion in CMBS at fair value and provides special servicing for commercial real estate loans through the LNR Property platform acquired in 2013. Total consolidated indebtedness was approximately $22.1 billion at December 31, 2025, financed through bank credit facilities, repurchase agreements, CLOs, ABSs, and mortgage debt.
Show full overview
Starwood Property Trust has no internal management team beyond one seconded employee — CFO Rina Paniry — with all investment origination, underwriting, and portfolio management provided by SPT Management, LLC under an auto-renewing management agreement that carries a termination fee equal to three times the average annual base and incentive fee over the prior 24 months. Starwood Private Real Estate Funds retain exclusivity provisions that may direct certain equity investment opportunities away from the REIT, and the same Starwood Capital Group personnel set co-investment terms across both the public REIT and private vehicles. This structural dependency could weigh on returns if key Starwood Capital Group officers depart or if the management agreement is terminated without an adequate replacement.
See also: Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
From STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S
Latest news
- NEWS Starwood Property Trust Q2 Preview: All Eyes On Net Lease (NYSE:STWD) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha neutral
- NEWS California State Teachers Retirement System Has $7.28 Million Stock Position in Starwood Property Trust, Inc. $STWD - Ma — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Starwood Property Trust (NYSE:STWD) Reaches New 12-Month Low - Here's What Happened - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS Analysts Estimate Starwood Property Trust (STWD) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Analysts Estimate Starwood Property Trust (STWD) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for - finance.yahoo.c — finance.yahoo.com negative
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:52Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMloan_portfolioMultifamily39%10-K Item 1: 'Multifamily| | 39.3 | %'
- HIGHloan_portfolioPower57%10-K Item 1: 'Power| | 56.9 | %'
- HIGHGeographicSouth East10-K Item 1: 'South East| | 57.9 | %'
- HIGHcounterpartyStarwood Capital Group10-K Item 1A: 'We are dependent on Starwood Capital Group, including our Manager and their key personnel'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $12.24 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Power (56.9%); Concentration risk — Geographic: South East. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $11.52. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $16.42 (+34.2% upside). Prior stop was $11.52. Stop-loss: $11.52.
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Power (56.9%); Concentration risk — Geographic: South East; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).
STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S trades at a P/E of 20.4 (forward 6.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover STWD with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $19.
What does STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S do?Starwood Property Trust originates, acquires, and manages real estate debt and equity investments across four segments:...
Starwood Property Trust originates, acquires, and manages real estate debt and equity investments across four segments: Commercial and Residential Lending, Infrastructure Lending, Property (including the $2.2 billion Fundamental acquisition in July 2025), and Investing and Servicing. The company generates income from commercial mortgage interest, infrastructure lending spreads, triple-net-lease rents, and CMBS special servicing, operating as an externally managed REIT with approximately $22.1 billion in total consolidated indebtedness at December 31, 2025.