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ADAMAdamas Trust, Inc.Buy Wait7.0·$7.78
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Adamas Trust combines a breakout setup with a favorable reward-to-risk ratio and an earnings catalyst backed by a strong beat streak, but soft momentum, a flagged yield-trap distribution, and proximity to the 52-week high temper the case for adding more.

Thesis pillars

  • Favorable Asymmetry With Margin Of Safety→Stable
  • Breakout Catalyst Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
  • Yield Trap Warning On Distribution→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Adamas Trust, Inc. (ADAM) Stock Analysis

Sector Rotation edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Wait for pullback to $7.55. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $7.78. Engine's entry $7.55 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Adamas Trust, Inc. (formerly New York Mortgage Trust) is an internally-managed mortgage REIT investing across an investment portfolio of Agency RMBS, non-Agency RMBS, single-family and business-purpose residential loans, and multi-family mezzanine investments, plus Constructive,... Read more

$7.78+34.7% A.UpsideScore 7.0/10#1 of 22 REIT - Mortgage
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield15.25%(5y avg 12.98%)Payout57.14%
Entry $7.55(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $7.08Target $10.48(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.5:1
Analyst consensus$12.04+54.8%6 analysts
$10.48our TP
$7.78price
$12.04mean
$24

Wait for pullback to $7.55. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $7.78. Engine's entry $7.55 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Deep value: 79% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 111d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Feb 17, 2027111d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)4.6
P/E (Fwd)6.3
Mkt Cap$699M
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn53.0%
ROE16.4%
Rev Growth129.8%
Beta1.30
Dividend15.25%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.27bullish
IV54%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
3.0
Support Resistance
3.0
52w Position
5.5
GatesMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5A.R:R 5.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 111d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $7.30Resistance $7.99

Price Targets

$7
$8
$10
A.Upside+34.7%
A.R:R5.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %1.7%
Max %3.4%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! RISK-OFF: Real Estate sector blocked for BUY_NOW (quality 6.5875 < 8.5)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-02-17 (111d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADAM stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $7.55. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $7.78. Engine's entry $7.55 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Deep value: 79% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. Target $10.48 (+34.7%), stop $7.08 (−9.9%), A.R:R 5.5:1. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADAM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.48 (+34.7% upside). Target $10.48 (+34.7%), stop $7.08 (−9.9%), A.R:R 5.5:1. Stop-loss: $7.08.

What are the risks of investing in ADAM?

Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Is ADAM overvalued or undervalued?

Adamas Trust, Inc. trades at a P/E of 4.6 (forward 6.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ADAM?

12 analysts cover ADAM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Adamas Trust, Inc. do?Adamas Trust, Inc. (formerly New York Mortgage Trust) is an internally-managed mortgage REIT investing across an...

Adamas Trust, Inc. (formerly New York Mortgage Trust) is an internally-managed mortgage REIT investing across an investment portfolio of Agency RMBS, non-Agency RMBS, single-family and business-purpose residential loans, and multi-family mezzanine investments, plus Constructive, a wholly-owned business-purpose loan originator operating in 48 states. The company funds its leveraged portfolio primarily through repurchase agreements, reporting a recourse leverage ratio of approximately 5.0-to-1 as of December 31, 2025.

Related stocks: MFA (MFA Financial, Inc.) · LADR (Ladder Capital Corp) · RITM (Rithm Capital Corp.) · FBRT (Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.) · EFC (Ellington Financial Inc.)
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