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RITMRithm Capital Corp.Sell6.6·$9.22+1.99%
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Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $9.22 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Rithm Capital is a global asset manager and REIT operating Newrez (top-5 U.S. mortgage originator and servicer with $2.1T portfolio UPB), Sculptor Capital Management, residential transitional lending (Genesis), and Class A office properties acquired via the December 2025... Read more

$9.22+28.5% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#1 of 17 REIT - Mortgage
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield11.06%(5y avg 9.44%)Payout91.74%
Stop $8.81Target $11.84(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.7:1
Analyst target$13.61+47.6%9 analysts
$11.84our TP
$9.22price
$13.61mean
$16

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $9.22 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202648d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3)
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.3
P/E (Fwd)3.8
Mkt Cap$5.0B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn17.0%
ROE8.5%
Rev Growth64.6%
Beta1.13
Dividend11.06%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.96neutral
IV59%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMloan_portfolioCalifornia (Genesis RTLs)37%
    10-K Item 1A: '36.8% of Genesis RTLs with a total UPB of approximately $1.3 billion were secured by properties located in California'
  • MEDIUMloan_portfolioCalifornia (MSRs and Excess MSRs)17%
    10-K Item 1A: '16.5% of the total UPB of the residential mortgage loans underlying our Excess MSRs and MSRs ... were secured by properties located in California'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Macd
6.1
Obv
6.5
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 5.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 48d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $8.93Resistance $9.77

Price Targets

$9
$12
A.Upside+28.4%
A.R:R5.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (48d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RITM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $9.22 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Prior stop was $8.81. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RITM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.84 (+28.5% upside). Prior stop was $8.81. Stop-loss: $8.81.

What are the risks of investing in RITM?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Negative momentum.

Is RITM overvalued or undervalued?

Rithm Capital Corp. trades at a P/E of 8.3 (forward 3.8). TrendMatrix value score: 9.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RITM?

17 analysts cover RITM with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $14.

What does Rithm Capital Corp. do?Rithm Capital is a global asset manager and REIT operating Newrez (top-5 U.S. mortgage originator and servicer with...

Rithm Capital is a global asset manager and REIT operating Newrez (top-5 U.S. mortgage originator and servicer with $2.1T portfolio UPB), Sculptor Capital Management, residential transitional lending (Genesis), and Class A office properties acquired via the December 2025 Paramount acquisition.

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