Skip to main content
STELStellar Bancorp, Inc.Hold5.5·$38.87+1.22%
Open full analysis

Stellar Bancorp, Inc. (STEL) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.87, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Houston and Beaumont MSAs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Stellar Bancorp is a Texas bank holding company ($10.81B assets) operating 52 banking centers in the Houston MSA, Beaumont MSA, and Dallas, focused on commercial banking for small-to-medium businesses. A pending merger with Prosperity Bancshares was announced January 27, 2026,... Read more

$38.87+15.0% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#103 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield1.54%(5y avg 1.90%)Payout28.16%sustainable
Stop $37.77Target $44.70(default +15%)A.R:R -2.4:1
Analyst target$38.00-2.2%2 analysts
$44.70our TP
$38.87price
$38.00mean
$32
$45

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.87, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Houston and Beaumont MSAs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 47d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Jul 31, 202647d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Houston and Beaumont MSAs
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.3% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.9
P/E (Fwd)16.6
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn25.0%
ROE6.4%
Rev Growth7.3%
Beta0.72
Dividend1.54%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicHouston and Beaumont MSAs
    10-K Item 1A: 'We conduct our operations almost exclusively in the Houston and Beaumont MSAs.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.4
Value Rank
1.6
Growth Rank
2.7

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.0
52w Position
9.4
GatesA.R:R -2.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 47d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $36.17Resistance $38.87

Price Targets

$38
$45
A.Upside+15.0%
A.R:R-2.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-16.9% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (47d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STEL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.87, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Houston and Beaumont MSAs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $44.70 (+15.0%), stop $37.77 (−2.9%), A.R:R -2.4:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the STEL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $44.70 (+15.0% upside). Target $44.70 (+15.0%), stop $37.77 (−2.9%), A.R:R -2.4:1. Stop-loss: $37.77.

What are the risks of investing in STEL?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Houston and Beaumont MSAs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.3% away).

Is STEL overvalued or undervalued?

Stellar Bancorp, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.9 (forward 16.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about STEL?

9 analysts cover STEL with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $38.

What does Stellar Bancorp, Inc. do?Stellar Bancorp is a Texas bank holding company ($10.81B assets) operating 52 banking centers in the Houston MSA,...

Stellar Bancorp is a Texas bank holding company ($10.81B assets) operating 52 banking centers in the Houston MSA, Beaumont MSA, and Dallas, focused on commercial banking for small-to-medium businesses. A pending merger with Prosperity Bancshares was announced January 27, 2026, expected to close Q2 2026.

Related stocks: INTR (Inter & Co. Inc.) · CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · IFS (Intercorp Financial Services In) · GABC (German American Bancorp, Inc.) · SSB (SouthState Bank Corporation)
Home Stocks STEL

Latest news

Latest News

Cổng thông tin điện tử tỉnh Lào Cai54d ago
Xã Vĩnh Công54d ago
The Business Journals54d agoMerger Acquisition
GuruFocus54d agoMerger Acquisition
Clashmusic.com54d ago
TradingView54d agoMerger Acquisition
PR Newswire54d agoMerger Acquisition
TipRanks55d agoMerger Acquisition
Markets Mojo59d agoAnalyst
PR Newswire56d ago
MarketBeat56d ago
MarketBeat60d agoEarnings
Benzinga48d ago
Benzinga54d agoMerger Acquisition