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SSDSimpson Manufacturing Company, Hold5.5·$190.74
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Simpson Manufacturing earns a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but the stock has already reached the analyst consensus price target and offers effectively no near-term upside at current prices.

Thesis pillars

  • Target Reached Limited Upside↓Deteriorating
  • Piotroski Perfect Quality Score↓Deteriorating
  • North America Geographic Concentration↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Simpson Manufacturing Company, (SSD) Stock Analysis

HoldQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Lumber & Wood Production

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $190.74, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: North America segment (77.8%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Simpson Manufacturing designs, engineers, and manufactures structural connectors, anchors, fasteners, and lateral-force resisting systems for wood and concrete construction. The North America segment contributed approximately 77.8% of 2025 net sales, with $619.0 million (roughly... Read more

$190.74-2.6% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#1 of 4 Lumber & Wood Production
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield0.63%(5y avg 0.71%)Payout12.79%sustainable
Stop $181.86Analyst target $185.83(reached)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst consensus$213.60+12.0%5 analysts
$190.74price
$213.60mean
$230

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $190.74, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: North America segment (77.8%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 102d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Feb 8, 2027102d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.6 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: North America segment (77.8%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.6
P/E (Fwd)19.7
Mkt Cap$7.8B
EV/EBITDA12.8
Profit Mgn15.6%
ROE18.3%
Rev Growth2.3%
Beta1.32
Dividend0.63%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C3.22bearish
IV29%low

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicNorth America segment78%
    10-K Item 1: 'the North America Segment accounting for approximately 77.8% of net sales for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomerlargest customers
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our largest customers accounted for a significant portion of net sales for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.8
52w Position
7.9

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.8
Revenue Growth
3.1

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.7
Growth Rank
2.5
Quality Rank
7.5
GatesA.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.3>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 102d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
75 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $168.68Resistance $192.69

Price Targets

A.Upside-2.6%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-02-08 (102d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SSD stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $190.74, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: North America segment (77.8%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $185.83 reached (−2.6%), stop $181.86 (−4.9%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SSD stock price target?

Analyst target $185.83 reached (−2.6% from $190.74); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $185.83 reached (−2.6%), stop $181.86 (−4.9%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Stop-loss: $181.86.

What are the risks of investing in SSD?

Concentration risk — Geographic: North America segment (77.8%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Is SSD overvalued or undervalued?

Simpson Manufacturing Company, trades at a P/E of 20.6 (forward 19.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about SSD?

10 analysts cover SSD with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $214.

What does Simpson Manufacturing Company, do?Simpson Manufacturing designs, engineers, and manufactures structural connectors, anchors, fasteners, and lateral-force...

Simpson Manufacturing designs, engineers, and manufactures structural connectors, anchors, fasteners, and lateral-force resisting systems for wood and concrete construction. The North America segment contributed approximately 77.8% of 2025 net sales, with $619.0 million (roughly 26.5%) from international markets. Products reach builders through dealers, home centers, distributors, and contractors globally.

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