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SQMSociedad Quimica y Minera S.A.Buy Wait7.4·$58.94
Buy WaitHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

SQM has grown revenue 70% year-over-year and leads its specialty chemicals peer group on growth, with a Piotroski score of 9 out of 9 and free cash flow at 210% of net income, but has missed analyst earnings estimates in all 4 of the last reported quarters by an average of -20.5%, and recent negative news sentiment has triggered a downward thesis modifier.

Thesis pillars

  • Peer Best Margins Specialist→Stable
  • Exceptional Revenue Growth Leader→Stable
  • High Quality Cash Conversion→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Sociedad Quimica y Minera S.A. (SQM) Stock Analysis

Sector Rotation edge

Buy WaitValueGrowthQualityHigh Confidence

Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals

Wait for pullback to $56.64. Below 200-day MA (death cross); also weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $58.94. Engine's entry $56.64 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. produces and sells specialty plant nutrients, and iodine and its derivatives in Chile, Latin America, the Caribbean, Europe, North America, Asia, and internationally. It offers potassium nitrate, sodium nitrate, specialty blends, and other... Read more

$58.94+25.5% A.UpsideScore 7.4/10#1 of 43 Specialty Chemicals
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield15.56%
IncomeYield4.02%(5y avg 2.36%)Payout21.19%sustainable
Entry $56.64(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $54.03Target $73.95(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.2:1
Analyst consensus$82.17+39.4%18 analysts
$73.95our TP
$58.94price
$82.17mean
$44
$110

Wait for pullback to $56.64. Below 200-day MA (death cross); also weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $58.94. Engine's entry $56.64 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Value play: 36% MoS with quality 8.4. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 7.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 19d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 17, 202619d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.4 in RISK_OFF)
Strong overall score: 7.4/10
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Below 200-day MA

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.1
P/E (Fwd)8.5
Mkt Cap$16.8B
EV/EBITDA6.7
Profit Mgn20.6%
ROE21.8%
Rev Growth136.7%
Beta1.07
Dividend4.02%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.64bullish
IV53%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
8.5
Earnings concerns: 0B/3MDividend aristocrat: 4.0% yield
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5A.R:R 4.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 19d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
31 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $55.70Resistance $67.10

Price Targets

$54
$57
$74
A.Upside+25.5%
A.R:R4.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.8%
Max %3.6%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! News modifier -1: STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-17 (19d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SQM stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $56.64. Below 200-day MA (death cross); also weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $58.94. Engine's entry $56.64 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Value play: 36% MoS with quality 8.4. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $73.95 (+25.5%), stop $54.03 (−9.1%), A.R:R 4.2:1. Score 7.4/10, high confidence.

What is the SQM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $73.95 (+25.5% upside). Target $73.95 (+25.5%), stop $54.03 (−9.1%), A.R:R 4.2:1. Stop-loss: $54.03.

What are the risks of investing in SQM?

Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Below 200-day MA.

Is SQM overvalued or undervalued?

Sociedad Quimica y Minera S.A. trades at a P/E of 12.1 (forward 8.5). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about SQM?

7 analysts cover SQM with a consensus score of 2.0/5. Average price target: $82.

What does Sociedad Quimica y Minera S.A. do?Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. produces and sells specialty plant nutrients, and iodine and its derivatives in...

Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. produces and sells specialty plant nutrients, and iodine and its derivatives in Chile, Latin America, the Caribbean, Europe, North America, Asia, and internationally. It offers potassium nitrate, sodium nitrate, specialty blends, and other specialty fertilizers under the Ultrasol, Qrop, Speedfol, Allganic, Ultrasoline, Prop, and Prohydric brands. The company also provides iodine and its derivatives for use in medical, agricultural, industrial, and human and animal nutrition products comprising x-ray contrast media, biocides, antiseptics and disinfectants, pharmaceutical intermediates, polarizing films for LCD and LED screens, chemicals, organic compounds, and pigments, as well as added to edible salt to prevent iodine deficiency disorders. In addition, it produces lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide which are used in the production of cathode material for, secondary batteries; lithium chloride; and basic lithium chemicals and lithium derivatives used in lubricating greases for heat-resistant glass, chips for the ceramic and glazing industry, and air conditioning chemicals, as well as other pharmaceutical syntheses and metal alloys. Further, the company produces potassium sulfate; and potassium chloride which are used to nourish various crops. Additionally, it produces and markets industrial chemicals, such as sodium nitrate mainly used in the production of glass and explosives, metal processing and recycling, and production of insulating materials and adhesives; potassium nitrate used as a raw material to produce frits and special ty glass, as well as in the enamel, metal treatment, and pyrotechnic sectors; solar salts used as a thermal storage medium in solar power generation plants; and potassium chloride as an additive in oil drilling and food processing sectors, as well as sells third-party fertilizers. Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in Santiago, Chile.

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