Value
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.3 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.5 |
| PEG | 8.3 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.79
SSD · Why this verdict
Why Simpson Manufacturing Company (SSD) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Simpson Manufacturing earns a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but the stock has already reached the analyst consensus price target and offers effectively no near-term upside at current prices.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The analyst consensus price target has been met and the stock now shows negative indicated upside of approximately 2%, meaning the near-term reward-to-risk ratio at current prices is deeply unfavorable at 0.18. Targets | Analyst price targets are upgraded to above $215, more than 10% above current price, within 12 months following positive earnings revisions. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWithout fresh catalysts or guidance upgrades, the stock may trade sideways or retrace to technical support levels, producing negative returns from current entry. | ||
Simpson Manufacturing scores a perfect 9 out of 9 on the Piotroski F-Score, reflecting strong profitability, leverage improvement, and operating efficiency across all nine criteria. Quality breakdown | The business sustains its Piotroski F-Score above 8/9 for the next four quarters, confirming structural quality is durable rather than cyclical. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh Piotroski scores are backward-looking and may not reflect upcoming housing-cycle headwinds that could pressure margins and cash flows in coming quarters. | ||
The North America segment generates approximately 77.8% of company revenue, concentrating earnings exposure to US residential and commercial construction activity. Bear case | International revenue grows faster than North American revenue, reducing the North America segment share below 75% over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterUS construction activity is highly sensitive to mortgage rates and housing starts, and a prolonged rate-elevated environment could compress North American demand faster than international diversification offsets it. | ||
Simpson has beaten consensus EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 7.6%, including a 16.3% beat in the most recent quarter. Earnings | The company beats consensus EPS by at least 5% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters as product pricing and volume hold. | ↑Improving |
| CounterConsensus estimates may already incorporate the recent beat pattern, leaving less cushion and increasing the probability of an inline or miss result if construction demand softens. | ||
The analyst consensus price target has been met and the stock now shows negative indicated upside of approximately 2%, meaning the near-term reward-to-risk ratio at current prices is deeply unfavorable at 0.18.
↓DeterioratingTargets
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are upgraded to above $215, more than 10% above current price, within 12 months following positive earnings revisions.
CounterWithout fresh catalysts or guidance upgrades, the stock may trade sideways or retrace to technical support levels, producing negative returns from current entry.
Simpson Manufacturing scores a perfect 9 out of 9 on the Piotroski F-Score, reflecting strong profitability, leverage improvement, and operating efficiency across all nine criteria.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The business sustains its Piotroski F-Score above 8/9 for the next four quarters, confirming structural quality is durable rather than cyclical.
CounterHigh Piotroski scores are backward-looking and may not reflect upcoming housing-cycle headwinds that could pressure margins and cash flows in coming quarters.
The North America segment generates approximately 77.8% of company revenue, concentrating earnings exposure to US residential and commercial construction activity.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- International revenue grows faster than North American revenue, reducing the North America segment share below 75% over the next 12 months.
CounterUS construction activity is highly sensitive to mortgage rates and housing starts, and a prolonged rate-elevated environment could compress North American demand faster than international diversification offsets it.
Simpson has beaten consensus EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 7.6%, including a 16.3% beat in the most recent quarter.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus EPS by at least 5% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters as product pricing and volume hold.
CounterConsensus estimates may already incorporate the recent beat pattern, leaving less cushion and increasing the probability of an inline or miss result if construction demand softens.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.1 |
| ROA | 6.7 |
| Gross margin | 5.1 |
| Op margin | 8.8 |
| Net margin | 7.8 |
| Current ratio | 9.6 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
3.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.1 |
| EPS growth | 2.8 |
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 75)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.2 |
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $761,782 (0.010% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.7 |
| quality rank | 7.5 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
Technical
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.8 |
| 52w position | 7.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 5.8 |
| volatility | 6.7 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 8.5 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 9.3 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.22
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.1 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:102d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.22
Upside
-2.6%
Downside
11.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.32>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5. Top dim: Quality at 7.6; weakest: Technical at 2.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.6, Catalyst at 6.9, and Sentiment at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 2.9, Growth at 3.0, and Peer rank at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.22 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Piotroski Perfect Quality Score
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 7 in any of the next 4 reporting periods, indicating meaningful quality deterioration.
- P2North America Geographic Concentration
Trip ifNorth America segment revenue declines by more than 5% year-over-year in any reported quarter over the next 12 months.
- P3Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -5% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the established beat pattern.
- P4Target Reached Limited Upside
Trip ifStock price drops below $178, more than 8% below the current $193.64, without analyst target upgrades within 30 days.