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BCCBoise Cascade, L.L.C.Sell5.5·$71.14+0.68%
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Boise Cascade, L.L.C. (BCC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Lumber & Wood Production

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $71.14: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Boise Cascade distributes building materials and manufactures engineered wood products (EWP) and plywood across two segments: Building Materials Distribution (BMD, $5.9 billion net sales in 2025) and Wood Products ($1.6 billion). BMD sells to dealers, home improvement centers,... Read more

$71.14+12.5% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#2 of 4 Lumber & Wood Production
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-1.01%
IncomeYield1.24%(5y avg 0.76%)Payout29.29%sustainable
Stop $66.66Target $80.04(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$92.00+29.3%6 analysts
$80.04our TP
$71.14price
$92.00mean
$105

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $71.14: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14

Recent Developments — Boise Cascade, L.L.C.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 3, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: BMD segment (71.0%)
Concentration risk — Product: EWP (60.0%)
Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.0
P/E (Fwd)13.2
Mkt Cap$2.5B
EV/EBITDA8.7
Profit Mgn1.7%
ROE5.3%
Rev Growth-2.5%
Beta1.07
Dividend1.24%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.21bullish
IV72%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerBMD segment71%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 71% of our Wood Products sales in 2025 were to our BMD business'
  • MEDIUMCommoditywood fiber
    10-K Item 1A: 'Wood fiber is our principal raw material'
  • HIGHProductEWP60%
    10-K Item 1: 'EWP and plywood accounted for 60% and 31%, respectively, of our Wood Products sales'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Operating Margin
0.7
Net Margin
0.9
Roe
1.8
Roa
1.9
Moat
4.6
Piotroski F
7.8
Current Ratio
9.3
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -23% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9Quality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.6
Support Resistance
1.9
Gap
5.0
52w Position
5.1
GatesA.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $64.79Resistance $72.59

Price Targets

$67
$80
A.Upside+12.5%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 1.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BCC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $71.14: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Prior stop was $66.66. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BCC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $80.04 (+12.5% upside). Prior stop was $66.66. Stop-loss: $66.66.

What are the risks of investing in BCC?

Concentration risk — Customer: BMD segment (71.0%); Concentration risk — Product: EWP (60.0%); Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0).

Is BCC overvalued or undervalued?

Boise Cascade, L.L.C. trades at a P/E of 24.0 (forward 13.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BCC?

11 analysts cover BCC with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $92.

What does Boise Cascade, L.L.C. do?Boise Cascade distributes building materials and manufactures engineered wood products (EWP) and plywood across two...

Boise Cascade distributes building materials and manufactures engineered wood products (EWP) and plywood across two segments: Building Materials Distribution (BMD, $5.9 billion net sales in 2025) and Wood Products ($1.6 billion). BMD sells to dealers, home improvement centers, and specialty distributors through 40 nationwide facilities; Builders FirstSource and Home Depot are the company's largest customers.

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