SPS Commerce has delivered 4 consecutive earnings beats with an average surprise of nearly 15%, exceptional free cash flow at 167% of net income, and a perfect Piotroski score of 9 out of 9, but the stock is in a confirmed death-cross downtrend with the 200-day moving average declining at -11.1% per month and asymmetry is unfavorable at current prices.
Thesis pillars
- Product Concentration Single Vertical↓Deteriorating
- Four Quarter Earnings Beat Consistency→Stable
- Exceptional Cash Conversion Piotroski→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 19, 2026
SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Technology · Software - Application
Wait for pullback to $83.11. Price sits above the model's entry target of $83.11; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: cloud-based supply chain management products; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
SPS Commerce operates a cloud-based supply chain network for retailers, suppliers, and logistics providers, generating $751.5 million in fiscal 2025 revenue, 96% recurring. The company's largest customer was less than 1% of revenues, with 2,948 employees serving a fragmented... Read more
Wait for pullback to $83.11. Price sits above the model's entry target of $83.11; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: cloud-based supply chain management products; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About SPS Commerce, Inc.
About SPS Commerce, Inc.
SPS Commerce reached $751.5 million in revenue for fiscal 2025, marking its 100th consecutive quarter of revenue growth, with recurring revenues accounting for 96% of that total. The supply chain network company employed 2,948 people worldwide, with 78% of the workforce in North America. The largest single customer accounted for less than 1% of revenues—a reflection of a client base spanning thousands of trading partners across retail, grocery, distribution, and logistics.
SPS Commerce generates revenue primarily through subscription-based cloud products—Fulfillment, which automates order-to-invoice workflows, and Analytics, which delivers sell-through data insights—sold to retailers, grocers, distributors, suppliers, manufacturers, and logistics firms. Distribution channels include an employed global sales force, channel partners such as Microsoft, NetSuite, Oracle, SAP, and Sage, and referrals generated through the Relationship Management product when retailers bring new suppliers into compliance. In 2025 the company acquired Carbon6 Technologies Inc., extending the platform into revenue-recovery tools for Amazon.com marketplace sellers. Competition comes from multi-tenant cloud vendors, traditional on-premise software providers whose customers face high switching costs from existing infrastructure, and managed-service firms that require customers to operate their own technology.
Show full overview
The value of SPS Commerce's network, cited in the 10-K as increasing 'exponentially with scale,' creates operational switching costs distinct from contractual lock-in: most recurring revenue agreements allow cancellation with only 30 to 90 days' notice, meaning retention depends on demonstrated indispensability. Each new participant gains immediate transaction capability with all existing connections, and existing members gain access to the entrant—compounding the value of the network over time. The company's compliance logic, accumulated over more than 20 years, is difficult for single-tenant on-premise competitors to replicate at equivalent breadth across thousands of retailer mappings.
See also: Technology · Software - Application
From SPS Commerce, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — SPS Commerce, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Analysts Offer Insights on Technology Companies: SPS Commerce (SPSC), F5, Inc. (FFIV) and Rambus (RMBS) - The Globe and — The Globe and Mail neutral
- NEWS SPS Commerce Inc (SPSC) Institutional Confidence - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS SPS Commerce Inc (SPSC) Valuation: PE, PB & Fair Value Analysis - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS SPS Commerce Inc (SPSC) Risk Assessment: Volatility, Financial Risk & Investment Risk - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS SPSC|SPS Commerce Inc|Price:65.970|Chg%:-3.430 - TradingKey — TradingKey negative
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:35Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductcloud-based supply chain management products10-K Item 1A: 'We derive, and expect to continue to derive, substantially all of our revenues from providing cloud-based supply chain management products'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-21Item 5.02MEDIUMCFO Kimberly Nelson's retirement date set as June 1, 2026; successor Joseph Del Preto had already assumed CFO role on March 16, 2026. Compensation & Talent Committee waived the six-month notice requirement for equity award retirement treatment.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-14Item 5.02LOWPSU award agreements for all executive officers amended to double-trigger change-in-control vesting, effective April 10, 2026. No officer departures; compensatory arrangement change only.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $83.11. Price sits above the model's entry target of $83.11; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: cloud-based supply chain management products; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Analyst target $70.94 reached (−17.1%), stop $77.51 (−10.4%), A.R:R -2.6:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $70.94 reached (−17.1% from $85.59); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $70.94 reached (−17.1%), stop $77.51 (−10.4%), A.R:R -2.6:1. Stop-loss: $77.51.
Concentration risk — Product: cloud-based supply chain management products; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
SPS Commerce, Inc. trades at a P/E of 41.3 (forward 16.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
19 analysts cover SPSC with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $82.
What does SPS Commerce, Inc. do?SPS Commerce operates a cloud-based supply chain network for retailers, suppliers, and logistics providers, generating...
SPS Commerce operates a cloud-based supply chain network for retailers, suppliers, and logistics providers, generating $751.5 million in fiscal 2025 revenue, 96% recurring. The company's largest customer was less than 1% of revenues, with 2,948 employees serving a fragmented global client base. Network effects create switching costs as each new participant gains immediate transaction access to all existing connections.