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SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $57.45, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Below 200-MA, MA slope -12.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

SPS Commerce operates a global cloud-based supply chain network connecting retailers, brands, distributors, and logistics providers via EDI and analytics solutions. It generated $751.5M in 2025 revenues, with 96% from recurring customers and 100 consecutive quarters of revenue... Read more

$57.45+15.9% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#8 of 96 Software - Application
Stop $53.43Target $66.59(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$76.55+33.2%11 analysts
$66.59our TP
$57.45price
$76.55mean
$110

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $57.45, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Below 200-MA, MA slope -12.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 63. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.60, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val7.9Qual6.8Grw7.8Mom5.9Sent6.5Ins3.9Peer6.1Tech2.1Risk4.46.4OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Below 200-MA, MA slope -12.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.8
P/E (Fwd)10.8
Mkt Cap$2.1B
EV/EBITDA10.9
Profit Mgn12.4%
ROE10.2%
Rev Growth12.7%
Beta0.61
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C12.00bearish
IV69%elevated
Max Pain$45-21.7% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-14Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation Committee approved amendment of all outstanding PSU awards on April 10, 2026 to standardize change-in-control vesting, aligning 2024 single-trigger grants with double-trigger terms used in 2025 and 2026.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-12Item 1.01MEDIUM
    SPS Commerce entered cooperation agreement with Anson Funds on Feb 12, 2026, appointing Michael J. McConnell and Fumbi Chima to the Board; Anson agreed to standstill provisions and to vote per Board recommendations at 2026 AGM.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CFO Kimberly Nelson announced retirement. Joseph Del Preto (formerly Sprout Social CFO) appointed EVP & CFO effective March 16, 2026. Clean handoff with transition period. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Support Resistance
2.7
Bollinger
2.8
Gap
3.0
Extreme gap up (6.2%) - may pull back
GatesA.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST EARNINGS 0.60NEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
63 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $50.55Resistance $60.06

Price Targets

$53
$67
A.Upside+15.9%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 1.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SPSC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $57.45, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Below 200-MA, MA slope -12.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 63. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $66.59 (+15.9%), stop $53.43 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SPSC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $66.59 (+15.9% upside). Target $66.59 (+15.9%), stop $53.43 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Stop-loss: $53.43.

What are the risks of investing in SPSC?

Below 200-MA, MA slope -12.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is SPSC overvalued or undervalued?

SPS Commerce, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.8 (forward 10.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about SPSC?

19 analysts cover SPSC with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $77.

What does SPS Commerce, Inc. do?SPS Commerce operates a global cloud-based supply chain network connecting retailers, brands, distributors, and...

SPS Commerce operates a global cloud-based supply chain network connecting retailers, brands, distributors, and logistics providers via EDI and analytics solutions. It generated $751.5M in 2025 revenues, with 96% from recurring customers and 100 consecutive quarters of revenue growth. The largest customer represents less than 1% of total revenues.

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