Skip to main content
SPSCSPS Commerce, Inc.Sell6.1·$55.30-0.31%
Open full analysis

SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. At $55.30, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.3%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

SPS Commerce operates a cloud-based supply chain network connecting retailers, suppliers, and logistics providers globally, enabling trading partner compliance and order automation. It generated $751.5M in revenue in 2025 (96% recurring), with no single customer exceeding 1% of... Read more

$55.30+7.3% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#20 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield7.48%
Stop $51.35Target $59.24(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$68.09+23.1%11 analysts
$59.24our TP
$55.30price
$68.09mean
$103

Sell if holding. At $55.30, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.3%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202658d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.3%
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Below 200-MA, MA slope -11.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.9
P/E (Fwd)10.6
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA10.6
Profit Mgn11.9%
ROE9.7%
Rev Growth5.8%
Beta0.56
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.25bearish
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$40-27.7% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-14Item 5.02LOW
    All outstanding PSU awards amended to standardize double-trigger vesting across 2024, 2025, and 2026 grants, effective April 10, 2026. Compensatory arrangement change; no officer departure.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-12Item 1.01MEDIUM
    Cooperation Agreement with activist investor Anson Funds: board expanded to 10, Michael J. McConnell and Fumbi Chima appointed as directors. Anson agreed to standstill and vote with board through 2027 nomination deadline.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Joseph Del Preto appointed EVP & CFO effective March 16, 2026, succeeding Kimberly Nelson who announced retirement. Del Preto previously CFO of Sprout Social since July 2017. Clean handoff.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
3.7
Support Resistance
4.5
GatesA.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 58d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $49.04Resistance $60.19

Price Targets

$51
$59
A.Upside+7.1%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.7 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (58d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SPSC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $55.30, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.3%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Prior stop was $51.35. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SPSC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $59.24 (+7.3% upside). Prior stop was $51.35. Stop-loss: $51.35.

What are the risks of investing in SPSC?

Thin upside margin: 7.3%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Below 200-MA, MA slope -11.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is SPSC overvalued or undervalued?

SPS Commerce, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.9 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SPSC?

18 analysts cover SPSC with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $68.

What does SPS Commerce, Inc. do?SPS Commerce operates a cloud-based supply chain network connecting retailers, suppliers, and logistics providers...

SPS Commerce operates a cloud-based supply chain network connecting retailers, suppliers, and logistics providers globally, enabling trading partner compliance and order automation. It generated $751.5M in revenue in 2025 (96% recurring), with no single customer exceeding 1% of total revenues.

Related stocks: DAVE (Dave Inc.) · KARO (Karooooo Ltd.) · GRND (Grindr Inc.) · PTC (PTC Inc.) · ADEA (Adeia Inc.)
Home Stocks SPSC

Latest news

Latest News

Yahoo Finance47d ago
HarianBasis.co48d ago
Yahoo Finance48d ago
Yahoo Finance46d ago
The Globe and Mail46d agoEarnings
The Motley Fool46d agoEarnings
Quiver Quantitative46d ago
TipRanks53d ago
GuruFocus50d ago
MarketBeat51d agoAnalyst
MSN46d ago
Benzinga45d agoAnalyst
Benzinga45d agoAnalyst
Benzinga46d agoAnalyst
Benzinga46d agoEarnings
Benzinga46d agoEarnings
Benzinga46d agoEarnings
Benzinga46d agoEarnings
Benzinga46d agoEarnings
Benzinga46d agoEarnings
Loading more...