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SMPStandard Motor Products, Inc.Buy Wait5.7·$37.88
Buy WaitHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Standard Motor Products is a cheap (7.6x forward P/E), cash-generative dividend payer with a perfect four-quarter beat streak, but it has no moat, slow growth and earnings due in 6 days.

Thesis pillars

  • Excellent Cash Conversion→Stable
  • Dividend Aristocrat Income↓Deteriorating
  • Low Multiple Valuation→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Standard Motor Products, Inc. (SMP) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 2/5ValueQualityHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Earnings today — results expected after close (2026-10-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $36.76. At $37.88 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $36.76 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Standard Motor Products manufactures and distributes premium replacement parts for the automotive aftermarket and custom-engineered components for non-aftermarket end markets, organized into four segments: Vehicle Control, Temperature Control, Nissens Automotive (acquired... Read more

$37.88+12.2% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#15 of 33 Auto Parts
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield15.44%
IncomeYield3.48%(5y avg 3.08%)Payout32.57%sustainable
Entry $36.76(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $34.84Target $42.50(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst consensus$50.00+32.0%3 analysts
$42.50our TP
$37.88price
$50.00mean
$54

Wait for pullback to $36.76. At $37.88 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $36.76 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Oct 30, 2026Earnings today — results expected after close· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 46%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.2), Material insider selling (25 sells, 34.91% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.6
P/E (Fwd)7.8
Mkt Cap$843M
EV/EBITDA6.0
Profit Mgn2.8%
ROE12.5%
Rev Growth1.6%
Beta0.84
Dividend3.48%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV52%elevated
Max Pain$30-20.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.6
Support Resistance
1.4
52w Position
6.9
GatesA.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dMomentum 7.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $34.67Resistance $38.42

Price Targets

$35
$37
$43
A.Upside+12.2%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Earnings today - binary event risk
! asymmetry at 1.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-30 (Earnings today — results expected after close)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SMP stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $36.76. At $37.88 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $36.76 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Target $42.50 (+12.2%), stop $34.84 (−8.7%), A.R:R 1.4:1. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.

What is the SMP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $42.50 (+12.2% upside). Target $42.50 (+12.2%), stop $34.84 (−8.7%), A.R:R 1.4:1. Stop-loss: $34.84.

What are the risks of investing in SMP?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.2), Material insider selling (25 sells, 34.91% of cap).

Is SMP overvalued or undervalued?

Standard Motor Products, Inc. trades at a P/E of 9.6 (forward 7.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about SMP?

7 analysts cover SMP with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $50.

What does Standard Motor Products, Inc. do?Standard Motor Products manufactures and distributes premium replacement parts for the automotive aftermarket and...

Standard Motor Products manufactures and distributes premium replacement parts for the automotive aftermarket and custom-engineered components for non-aftermarket end markets, organized into four segments: Vehicle Control, Temperature Control, Nissens Automotive (acquired November 2024), and Engineered Solutions. The company sells to major retailers, distributors, and OEMs across the U.S. and Europe, with three unnamed customers each representing more than 10% of 2025 consolidated net sales, at 25.2%, 18.6%, and 10.5% respectively.

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