Value
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.22
- ▸Attractively valued
SMP · Why this verdict
Why Standard Motor Products (SMP) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 19.25%. Catalyst breakdown | The beat streak should extend through the next report if execution remains consistent. | →Stable |
| CounterA rising bar of expectations increases miss risk even for a consistently strong performer. | ||
The current setup shows only an 8.3% upside margin against leverage penalties from a 1.1x debt-to-equity ratio. Bear case | The upside margin should widen if the stock re-rates or leverage improves. | →Stable |
| CounterEven thin margins can compound significantly for a fundamentally sound, cash-generative business. | ||
The stock trades at a 7.7x forward P/E with a 0.22 PEG ratio, excellent 141% FCF-to-net-income cash conversion, and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Quality breakdown | The valuation multiple should expand toward the peer average as quality is recognized. | →Stable |
| CounterAuto parts sector cyclicality could keep the multiple compressed regardless of company-specific quality. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day moving average, but that average is still rising 0.6% over 30 days, which the engine characterizes as a pullback within an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average within 2 quarters if this is genuinely a pullback. | →Stable |
| CounterA rising moving average combined with falling on-balance volume and a failed momentum gate could instead mark the early stage of a trend reversal. | ||
Insiders were net sellers over the trailing 90 days, totaling $306,070 with zero buys, a bearish signal. Insider | The insider signal should turn neutral or positive if buying resumes. | →Stable |
| CounterA modest sale representing 0.036% of market cap may reflect routine diversification rather than a negative view. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 19.25%.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend through the next report if execution remains consistent.
CounterA rising bar of expectations increases miss risk even for a consistently strong performer.
The current setup shows only an 8.3% upside margin against leverage penalties from a 1.1x debt-to-equity ratio.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The upside margin should widen if the stock re-rates or leverage improves.
CounterEven thin margins can compound significantly for a fundamentally sound, cash-generative business.
The stock trades at a 7.7x forward P/E with a 0.22 PEG ratio, excellent 141% FCF-to-net-income cash conversion, and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The valuation multiple should expand toward the peer average as quality is recognized.
CounterAuto parts sector cyclicality could keep the multiple compressed regardless of company-specific quality.
The stock is below its 200-day moving average, but that average is still rising 0.6% over 30 days, which the engine characterizes as a pullback within an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average within 2 quarters if this is genuinely a pullback.
CounterA rising moving average combined with falling on-balance volume and a failed momentum gate could instead mark the early stage of a trend reversal.
Insiders were net sellers over the trailing 90 days, totaling $306,070 with zero buys, a bearish signal.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- The insider signal should turn neutral or positive if buying resumes.
CounterA modest sale representing 0.036% of market cap may reflect routine diversification rather than a negative view.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Standard Motor Products combines a perfect earnings beat streak and attractively valued, cash-generative fundamentals with a near-term technical pullback and thin risk/reward margin that the market has yet to resolve.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.1 |
| ROA | 4.1 |
| Gross margin | 2.3 |
| Op margin | 3.9 |
| Net margin | 1.3 |
| Current ratio | 7.7 |
| FCF quality | 9.7 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 141% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 9.1 |
Momentum
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 30%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $306,070 (0.036% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.1 |
| quality rank | 5.7 |
| growth rank | 5.4 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 8.5 |
| 52w position | 6.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 4.3 |
| volatility | 4.7 |
| implied vol | 2.2 |
| beta | 8.2 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
- ▸High IV: 67%
Catalyst
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 9.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 3.5%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:29d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.7<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.65
Upside
+10.3%
Downside
6.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 29d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 8.7; weakest: Momentum at 1.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.7, Technical at 8.3, and Catalyst at 7.8; the weakest are Momentum at 1.7, Quality at 5.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.65 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% at the next earnings report, ending the current 4-quarter beat streak.
- P2Attractive Valuation Strong Cash Conversion
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 12x without a decline in the Piotroski F-Score.
- P3Pullback In Established Uptrend
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average for more than 20 consecutive trading days while that moving average itself turns negative.
- P4Thin Risk Reward Margin
Trip ifUpside margin exceeds 15% as the stock re-rates or the price target is raised.
- P5Insider Selling Signal
Trip ifInsider buying exceeds $250,000 over a rolling 90-day window, reversing the bearish signal.