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Shake Shack, Inc. (SHAK) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $99.71, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.7%; Concentration risk — Supplier: single ShackSauce supplier.

Shake Shack operates 659 system-wide Shacks (373 company-operated, 286 licensed) globally serving premium burgers, chicken, and milkshakes. Revenue comes from company-operated Shack sales and licensed Shack royalties; supply is concentrated in a limited number of single-source... Read more

$99.71+3.7% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#8 of 20 Restaurants
Stop $92.88Target $103.53(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$115.04+15.4%26 analysts
$103.53our TP
$99.71price
$115.04mean
$150

Sell if holding. At $99.71, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.7%; Concentration risk — Supplier: single ShackSauce supplier. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Val3.4Qual4.2Grw7.8Mom4.1Sent6.9Ins5.0Peer4.4Tech4.2Risk3.35.0OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: single ShackSauce supplier
Thin upside margin: 3.7%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)94.0
P/E (Fwd)58.3
Mkt Cap$4.4B
EV/EBITDA26.9
Profit Mgn3.2%
ROE9.5%
Rev Growth21.9%
Beta1.75
DividendNone
Rating analysts35

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.69bullish
IV81%elevated
Max Pain$60-39.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSuppliersingle ground beef supplier38%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 38% of our ground beef patties from one supplier'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle ShackSauce supplier
    10-K Item 1A: '(vii) ShackSauce from one supplier'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-09Item 5.02LOW
    Director Joshua Silverman resigned from Board effective May 1, 2026 after 9+ years. Board reducing size from 9 to 8 directors effective May 1, 2026. No disagreement with Company cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-24Item 5.02HIGH
    Corporate Controller Peter Herpich designated interim principal financial officer February 23, 2026. CFO Katherine Fogertey resigned November 2025; formal CFO search underway. No permanent successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
0.3
Forward Pe
1.9
Peg Ratio
4.5
Analyst Target
5.0
Ps
8.3
Forward P/E: 58.3xPEG: 2.03
GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5A.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $88.84Resistance $106.84

Price Targets

$93
$104
A.Upside+3.8%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 4.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SHAK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $99.71, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.7%; Concentration risk — Supplier: single ShackSauce supplier. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $92.88. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

What is the SHAK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $103.53 (+3.7% upside). Prior stop was $92.88. Stop-loss: $92.88.

What are the risks of investing in SHAK?

Concentration risk — Supplier: single ShackSauce supplier; Thin upside margin: 3.7%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0.

Is SHAK overvalued or undervalued?

Shake Shack, Inc. trades at a P/E of 94.0 (forward 58.3). TrendMatrix value score: 3.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SHAK?

35 analysts cover SHAK with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $115.

What does Shake Shack, Inc. do?Shake Shack operates 659 system-wide Shacks (373 company-operated, 286 licensed) globally serving premium burgers,...

Shake Shack operates 659 system-wide Shacks (373 company-operated, 286 licensed) globally serving premium burgers, chicken, and milkshakes. Revenue comes from company-operated Shack sales and licensed Shack royalties; supply is concentrated in a limited number of single-source ingredient suppliers.

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