Value
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.3 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.1 |
| PEG | 9.2 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 34.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.64
SHAK · Why this verdict
Why Shake Shack (SHAK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.8 |
| ROA | 1.4 |
| Gross margin | 4.1 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 1.4 |
| Current ratio | 6.1 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -24% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 2.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 3.8 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 60%
Insider
6.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 8.0 |
| insider conviction | 7.4 |
| holder change | 5.4 |
- ▸Notable insider buying — $3,206,197 (0.143% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.8 |
| quality rank | 0.9 |
| growth rank | 8.0 |
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 10.0 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.2 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 5.5 |
| implied vol | 2.2 |
| beta | 4.6 |
| debt equity | 3.6 |
- ▸High short interest: 16%
- ▸High IV: 67%
Catalyst
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:53d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.50
Upside
+44.0%
Downside
12.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.62>1.3, MCap $2.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 8.1 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.1, Sentiment at 7.5, and Insider at 6.9; the weakest are Momentum at 2.3, Quality at 3.4, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.50 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.