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JMKEJersey Mike's Subs Inc.Sell5.9·$17.43
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

JMKE is a high-quality restaurant franchisor (quality 7.1, Piotroski 9/9) with 51.4% analyst-target upside, but collapsing momentum and heavy insider share disposals mean the engine says avoid for now.

Thesis pillars

  • High Quality Restaurant Franchise→Stable
  • Analyst Upside Favorable Asymmetry→Stable
  • Capitulation Momentum Failure↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Oct 4, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Jersey Mike's Subs Inc. (JMKE) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $17.43: Elevated risk factors; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Jersey Mike's Subs Inc. engages in franchising and operating fast casual, submarine-style sandwich restaurants specializing in authentic, hand-crafted, and craveable subs. The company also offers catering services, as well as provides mobile app, online ordering, and third-party... Read more

$17.43+40.5% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#7 of 30 Restaurants
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield—
Stop $16.21Analyst target $24.49(−10% haircut)A.R:R 4.4:1
Analyst consensus$27.21+56.1%23 analysts
$24.49Analyst target
$17.43price
$27.21mean
$15
$40

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $17.43: Elevated risk factors; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on clean insider activity. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 2026Date unconfirmed· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.1 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Positive momentum
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)22.0
Mkt Cap$5.5B
EV/EBITDA17.8
Profit Mgn-0.1%
ROE—
Rev Growth10.1%
Beta—
DividendNone
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C27.13bearish
IV64%elevated
Max Pain$13-28.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
News Activity
8.0
GatesINSIDER 27.34%=EXTREMEMomentum 7.8>=5.5A.R:R 4.4 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
51 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MASupport $15.96Resistance $18.82

Price Targets

$16
$24
A.Upside+40.5%
A.R:R4.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Insider activity: 27.34%=extreme

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (Date unconfirmed)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is JMKE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $17.43: Elevated risk factors; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $16.21. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the JMKE stock price target?

Analyst target: $24.49 (+40.5% upside). Prior stop was $16.21. Stop-loss: $16.21.

What are the risks of investing in JMKE?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Elevated risk factors.

Is JMKE overvalued or undervalued?

Jersey Mike's Subs Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 22.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about JMKE?

30 analysts cover JMKE with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $27.

What does Jersey Mike's Subs Inc. do?Jersey Mike's Subs Inc. engages in franchising and operating fast casual, submarine-style sandwich restaurants...

Jersey Mike's Subs Inc. engages in franchising and operating fast casual, submarine-style sandwich restaurants specializing in authentic, hand-crafted, and craveable subs. The company also offers catering services, as well as provides mobile app, online ordering, and third-party delivery. It operates stores in the United States and Canada, as well as franchise agreements in the United Kingdom and Ireland. The company was founded in 1956 and is based in Tinton Falls, New Jersey.

Related stocks: ARCO (Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.) · WING (Wingstop Inc.) · YUM (Yum! Brands, Inc.) · BROS (Dutch Bros Inc.) · QSR (Restaurant Brands International)
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