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SAILSailPoint, Inc.Hold5.7·$14.75+2.29%
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SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

SailPoint delivers SaaS and customer-hosted identity security solutions for enterprise governance, serving approximately 3,235 organizations globally as of January 31, 2026. Revenue grew from $699.6M to $1.1B between FY2024 and FY2026, earned via annual and multi-year... Read more

$14.75+17.6% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#34 of 77 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.00%
Stop $13.60Target $17.19(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$19.10+29.5%24 analysts
$17.19our TP
$14.75price
$19.10mean
$10
$25

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Sep 9, 202689d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -28.5%), Material insider selling (29 sells, 0.08% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)36.5
Mkt Cap$8.2B
EV/EBITDA887.0
Profit Mgn-14.0%
ROE-2.3%
Rev Growth21.6%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.38bullish
IV98%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicoutside of the United States35%
    10-K Item 1: 'During the fiscal years ended January 31, 2026 and 2025, we generated 35% and 32%, respectively, of our revenue from outside of the United States.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.5
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $12.74Resistance $20.15

Price Targets

$14
$17
A.Upside+16.5%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-09 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SAIL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $17.19 (+16.5%), stop $13.60 (−8.5%), A.R:R 1.2:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SAIL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.19 (+17.6% upside). Target $17.19 (+16.5%), stop $13.60 (−8.5%), A.R:R 1.2:1. Stop-loss: $13.60.

What are the risks of investing in SAIL?

Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -28.5%), Material insider selling (29 sells, 0.08% of cap).

Is SAIL overvalued or undervalued?

SailPoint, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 36.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about SAIL?

30 analysts cover SAIL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $19.

What does SailPoint, Inc. do?SailPoint delivers SaaS and customer-hosted identity security solutions for enterprise governance, serving...

SailPoint delivers SaaS and customer-hosted identity security solutions for enterprise governance, serving approximately 3,235 organizations globally as of January 31, 2026. Revenue grew from $699.6M to $1.1B between FY2024 and FY2026, earned via annual and multi-year subscription contracts primarily to large enterprises.

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