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SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.05: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 26%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.33; Below-average business quality.

SailPoint provides enterprise identity security software, available as SaaS (Identity Security Cloud) or on-premise (IdentityIQ), serving large enterprises globally. Revenue grew from $699.6M to $1.1B over two fiscal years, primarily from 3-year subscription contracts billed... Read more

$12.05+42.0% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#51 of 80 Software - Infrastructure
Stop $11.18Target $17.08(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.9:1
Analyst target$18.98+57.5%23 analysts
$17.08our TP
$12.05price
$18.98mean
$28

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.05: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 26%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.33; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 40d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)29.5
Mkt Cap$6.4B
EV/EBITDA-63.0
Profit Mgn-25.2%
ROE-42.9%
Rev Growth22.7%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.33bearish
IV99%elevated
Max Pain$8-37.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Volatile — 6.0% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Short Interest
0.9
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Days To Cover
5.5
Debt Equity
8.9
High short interest justified: 26%Elevated put/call: 2.33High IV: 99%Above max pain $8

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Gap
4.0
Bollinger
4.1
Support Resistance
4.5

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
4.5
Macd
8.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Unprofitable operations — net margin -25.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Current Ratio
5.0
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Gross Margin
8.9
Fcf Quality
9.1
FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 28%, FCF yield 4.7%)No competitive moat
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 40d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.30Resistance $13.45

Price Targets

$11
$17
A.Upside+41.7%
A.R:R2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-10 (40d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SAIL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.05: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 26%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.33; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Prior stop was $11.18. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SAIL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.08 (+42.0% upside). Prior stop was $11.18. Stop-loss: $11.18.

What are the risks of investing in SAIL?

Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).

Is SAIL overvalued or undervalued?

SailPoint, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 29.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SAIL?

29 analysts cover SAIL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $19.

What does SailPoint, Inc. do?SailPoint provides enterprise identity security software, available as SaaS (Identity Security Cloud) or on-premise...

SailPoint provides enterprise identity security software, available as SaaS (Identity Security Cloud) or on-premise (IdentityIQ), serving large enterprises globally. Revenue grew from $699.6M to $1.1B over two fiscal years, primarily from 3-year subscription contracts billed annually.

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