Kaspi.kz has compounded returns through a wide economic moat, 47% return on equity, and 31% revenue growth with a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9 — but three consecutive earnings misses before the most recent beat, negative free cash flow despite strong reported earnings, and a price sitting at the analyst target with unfavorable risk/reward make the current entry point unattractive for new capital.
Thesis pillars
- Wide Moat High Returns→Stable
- Strong Revenue Growth Profile→Stable
- Earnings Execution Pattern→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - (KSPI) Stock Analysis
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $91.49 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, together with its subsidiaries, provides payments, marketplace, and fintech solutions for consumers and merchants in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine. The company operates through three segments: Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech. The Payments... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $91.49 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz -
Latest news
- NEWS Kaspi.kz (KSPI) director sells 107,546 ADS, retains large stake - Stock Titan — Stock Titan negative
- NEWS Kaspi.kz JSC - ADR (KSPI) News, Articles, Events & Latest Updates - Stocktwits — Stocktwits neutral
- NEWS Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ:KSPI) Hits New 1-Year High on Analyst Upgrade - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Kaspi.kz (KSPI) Releases Q2 2026 Earnings: Revenue Rises 25% and Profit More Than Doubles - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
- NEWS Kaspi.kz (KSPI) Releases Q2 2026 Earnings: Revenue Rises 25% and Profit More Than Doubles - quiverquant.com — quiverquant.com positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:33Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $91.49 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $86.74. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $90.88 reached (−0.7% from $91.49); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $86.74. Stop-loss: $86.74.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Consecutive earnings misses (3).
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - trades at a P/E of 8.4 (forward 0.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover KSPI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $104.
What does Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - do?Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, together with its subsidiaries, provides payments, marketplace, and fintech solutions for...
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, together with its subsidiaries, provides payments, marketplace, and fintech solutions for consumers and merchants in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine. The company operates through three segments: Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech. The Payments segment offers a platform that facilities transactions between and among merchants and consumers. This segment provides ways for consumers to pay for shopping transactions and regular household bills, as well as make peer to peer payments; and enables merchants to accept payment online and in store, issue and settle invoices, pay suppliers, and monitor merchant turnover. It also offers proprietary data, which facilitates informed decision-making across multiple areas of business. Its Marketplace Platform segment connects both online and offline merchants with consumers, enabling merchants to increase sales through an omnichannel strategy and allowing consumers to purchase products and services from various merchants. This segment operates marketplaces through m-commerce, a mobile solution for shopping in person; e-Commerce, which allows consumers to shop anywhere and anytime with free delivery; and Kaspi Travel that allows consumers to book domestic and international flights, domestic rail tickets, and international package holidays. It also enhances merchants' sales by connecting payments and fintech products, Kapsi advertising, and other delivery services. The Fintech Platform segment provides consumers with buy-now-pay-later, finance and savings products, and merchants with merchant finance services. It also involved in the banking; distressed asset management; real estate business; payment processing; online travel; e-grocery; classifieds; and storage and processing of information services. Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Almaty, the Republic of Kazakhstan.