Kaspi.kz has compounded returns through a wide economic moat, 47% return on equity, and 31% revenue growth with a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9 — but three consecutive earnings misses before the most recent beat, negative free cash flow despite strong reported earnings, and a price sitting at the analyst target with unfavorable risk/reward make the current entry point unattractive for new capital.
Thesis pillars
- Wide Moat High Returns→Stable
- Strong Revenue Growth Profile→Stable
- Earnings Execution Pattern→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - (KSPI) Stock Analysis
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $86.50 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3).
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, together with its subsidiaries, provides payments, marketplace, and fintech solutions for consumers and merchants in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine. The company operates through three segments: Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech. The Payments... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $86.50 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 40d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-01Recent Developments — Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz -
Latest news
- NEWS Kaspi.kz (KSPI) director sells 107,546 ADS, retains large stake - Stock Titan — Stock Titan negative
- NEWS Kaspi.kz JSC - ADR (KSPI) News, Articles, Events & Latest Updates - Stocktwits — Stocktwits neutral
- NEWS Down 9.6% in 4 Weeks, Here's Why You Should You Buy the Dip in Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz Sponsored ADR (KSPI) - Yahoo — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Net income from continuing operations of Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - American Depository Shares – NASDAQ:KSPI - Tradi — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Kaspi.kz (KSPI) director sells 31,596 ADSs in open-market trades - Stock Titan — Stock Titan negative
Generated 2026-07-01T19:29:53Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $86.50 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $81.17. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $88.11 (+1.2% upside). Prior stop was $81.17. Stop-loss: $81.17.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (155 sells, 0.57% of cap), Negative free cash flow.
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - trades at a P/E of 7.8 (forward 0.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover KSPI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $98.
What does Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - do?Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, together with its subsidiaries, provides payments, marketplace, and fintech solutions for...
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, together with its subsidiaries, provides payments, marketplace, and fintech solutions for consumers and merchants in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine. The company operates through three segments: Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech. The Payments segment offers a platform that facilities transactions between and among merchants and consumers. This segment provides ways for consumers to pay for shopping transactions and regular household bills, as well as make peer to peer payments; and enables merchants to accept payment online and in store, issue and settle invoices, pay suppliers, and monitor merchant turnover. It also offers proprietary data, which facilitates informed decision-making across multiple areas of business. Its Marketplace Platform segment connects both online and offline merchants with consumers, enabling merchants to increase sales through an omnichannel strategy and allowing consumers to purchase products and services from various merchants. This segment operates marketplaces through m-commerce, a mobile solution for shopping in person; e-Commerce, which allows consumers to shop anywhere and anytime with free delivery; and Kaspi Travel that allows consumers to book domestic and international flights, domestic rail tickets, and international package holidays. It also enhances merchants' sales by connecting payments and fintech products, Kapsi advertising, and other delivery services. The Fintech Platform segment provides consumers with buy-now-pay-later, finance and savings products, and merchants with merchant finance services. It also involved in the banking; distressed asset management; real estate business; payment processing; online travel; e-grocery; classifieds; and storage and processing of information services. Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Almaty, the Republic of Kazakhstan.