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RYNRayonier Inc. REITSell5.9·$18.75
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Rayonier's perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak and industry-leading growth rank position this timberland REIT for recovery, though geographic concentration in U.S. South timberlands and a critical regulatory filing cap near-term upside.

Thesis pillars

  • Earnings Beat Streak Quality↑Improving
  • Industry Growth Leadership→Stable
  • Geographic Concentration Headwind→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 23, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Rayonier Inc. REIT (RYN) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellGrowthModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Specialty

Earnings in 6 days (2026-11-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $18.75: Thin upside margin: 9.8%; Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. South timberlands (90.0%).

Rayonier is a timberland REIT owning approximately 2.0 million acres in the U.S. South (1.69 million acres) and Pacific Northwest (307,000 acres) as of December 31, 2025, with recurring income from timber harvest across Southern Timber, Pacific Northwest Timber, and Real Estate... Read more

$18.75+9.8% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#3 of 17 REIT - Specialty
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.98%
IncomeYield5.55%(5y avg 3.75%)Payout231.52%
Stop $17.85Analyst target $20.59(−13% haircut)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst consensus$23.67+26.2%6 analysts
$20.59Analyst target
$18.75price
$23.67mean
$30

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $18.75: Thin upside margin: 9.8%; Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. South timberlands (90.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on SEC filing concern and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Rayonier Inc. REIT

About Rayonier Inc. REIT

Rayonier's 2.0 million-acre timberland portfolio — 1.69 million acres in the U.S. South and 307,000 acres in the Pacific Northwest — supports an estimated Southern sustainable yield of 6.4 to 6.7 million tons annually and a Pacific Northwest sustainable yield of 115 to 135 million board feet. Merchantable timber inventory across both regions totaled 74.7 million short green tons at September 30, 2025, with 90% located in the South. The PotlatchDeltic merger-of-equals closed January 30, 2026, with Rayonier issuing approximately 140.9 million common shares.

Rayonier generates income through three segments. Southern Timber and Pacific Northwest Timber harvest softwood and hardwood species — primarily loblolly and slash pine in the South, and Douglas-fir and western hemlock in the Pacific Northwest — and sell to pulp, paper, wood products, and biomass facilities, as well as to Pacific Rim export markets. The Real Estate segment pursues higher and better use (HBU) land sales at premiums to timberland values, with active development projects at Wildlight (north of Jacksonville, Florida) and Heartwood (south of Savannah, Georgia) and a multi-year pipeline in Florida, Georgia, and Washington. Sawtimber pricing in Idaho is indexed under long-term supply agreements on a four-week lag to lumber prices, creating direct exposure to lumber market volatility. In the Pacific Northwest, recent federal executive orders expanding Bureau of Land Management and U.S. Forest Service timber sales could materially increase regional supply, depress timber prices, and adversely affect results of operations.

Show full overview

Geographic concentration in the U.S. South — which holds 90% of Rayonier's merchantable timber inventory across 1.69 million acres — ties results primarily to Southern pulpwood and sawtimber demand cycles from pulp, paper, wood products, and biomass facilities. In March 2026, Rayonier disclosed a change in certifying accountant via Form 8-K filed March 18, 2026 (date of event March 12, 2026), a development that coincided with the January 30, 2026 PotlatchDeltic merger closing — a transaction that significantly expanded geographic diversity and introduced wood products manufacturing capabilities to the combined company.

See also: Real Estate · REIT - Specialty

From Rayonier Inc. REIT's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 20266d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. South timberlands (90.0%)
Thin upside margin: 9.8%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)40.8
P/E (Fwd)33.0
Mkt Cap$5.6B
EV/EBITDA20.8
Profit Mgn7.8%
ROE2.0%
Rev Growth272.1%
Beta0.92
Dividend5.55%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.17bullish
IV54%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicU.S. South timberlands90%
    10-K Item 1: 'South ... 67,161 ... 90 ... Pacific Northwest ... 7,506 ... 10'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-18Item 4.01HIGH
    Change in certifying accountant disclosed; date of earliest event March 12, 2026. Filing body truncated before auditor identities and reason for change were stated. Change coincides with closing of PotlatchDeltic merger on January 30, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesSEC critical: EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.7>=5.5A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $17.71Resistance $19.32

Price Targets

$18
$21
A.Upside+9.8%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Critical SEC filing
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RYN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $18.75: Thin upside margin: 9.8%; Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. South timberlands (90.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Prior stop was $17.85. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RYN stock price target?

Analyst target: $20.59 (+9.8% upside). Prior stop was $17.85. Stop-loss: $17.85.

What are the risks of investing in RYN?

Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. South timberlands (90.0%); Thin upside margin: 9.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0).

Is RYN overvalued or undervalued?

Rayonier Inc. REIT trades at a P/E of 40.8 (forward 33.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RYN?

10 analysts cover RYN with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $24.

What does Rayonier Inc. REIT do?Rayonier is a timberland REIT owning approximately 2.0 million acres in the U.S. South (1.69 million acres) and Pacific...

Rayonier is a timberland REIT owning approximately 2.0 million acres in the U.S. South (1.69 million acres) and Pacific Northwest (307,000 acres) as of December 31, 2025, with recurring income from timber harvest across Southern Timber, Pacific Northwest Timber, and Real Estate segments. On January 30, 2026, Rayonier completed a merger with PotlatchDeltic Corporation in a merger-of-equals transaction, issuing approximately 140.9 million common shares.

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