Value
4.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 3.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| p ocf | 4.7 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 24.1x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
RYN · Why this verdict
Why Rayonier Inc. REIT (RYN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.6 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 1.7 |
| Op margin | 3.7 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.6 |
| FCF quality | 5.7 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 69%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 76% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.2 |
| MACD | 7.9 |
| OBV | 6.6 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 25%
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $61,816 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.3 |
| quality rank | 4.6 |
| growth rank | 8.5 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.2 |
| support resistance | 3.4 |
| 52w position | 6.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 5.8 |
| volatility | 7.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 3.9 |
| beta | 7.5 |
| debt equity | 8.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.60
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 496.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:58d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- 8K_CRITICAL:4.01
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
1.51
Upside
+8.9%
Downside
5.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK, 8K_CRITICAL:4.01) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.51 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 6.4, and Sentiment at 6.0; the weakest are Technical at 4.4, Momentum at 4.6, and Value at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.51 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.