Rapid7's perfect earnings beat streak and strong cash conversion are increasingly offset by falling analyst estimates, a confirmed price downtrend, and a negative risk-adjusted asymmetry ratio, consistent with a call to consider reducing the position.
Thesis pillars
- Excellent Cash Conversion Despite Quality Gaps→Stable
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- Falling Analyst Estimates↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 19, 2026
Rapid7, Inc. (RPD) Stock Analysis
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $17.68 — A.R:R is negative (-2.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3).
Rapid7 is a global cybersecurity operations software provider whose Command Platform unifies exposure management, threat detection, and managed detection and response (MDR) services for security operations teams. The company generated $859.8 million in revenue in 2025, up from... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $17.68 — A.R:R is negative (-2.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Rapid7, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS RPD|Rapid7 Inc|Price:10.385|Chg%:-0.475 - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS RPD|Rapid7 Inc|Price:10.385|Chg%:-0.475 - tradingkey.com — tradingkey.com negative
- NEWS Rapid7, Inc. 2026 Q2 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NASDAQ:RPD) 2026-08-10 - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha neutral
- NEWS Rapid7 Inc (RPD) Stock Price & News - Google Finance - Google — Google neutral
- NEWS Bandwidth, Rapid7, Atlassian, RingCentral, and CrowdStrike Shares Skyrocket, What You Need To Know - StockStory — StockStory positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:52Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-01Item 5.02MEDIUMBoard appointed Wael Mohamed as CEO effective June 1, 2026, succeeding Corey Thomas, who becomes Executive Chairman; both continue serving as directors. Clean handoff with a named successor.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -1.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Negative sentiment — recent news tone and/or analyst downgrades drag the composite below neutral.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $17.68 — A.R:R is negative (-2.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $16.44. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $10.95 reached (−38.0% from $17.68); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $16.44. Stop-loss: $16.44.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Rapid7, Inc. trades at a P/E of 57.0 (forward 8.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
31 analysts cover RPD with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $12.
What does Rapid7, Inc. do?Rapid7 is a global cybersecurity operations software provider whose Command Platform unifies exposure management,...
Rapid7 is a global cybersecurity operations software provider whose Command Platform unifies exposure management, threat detection, and managed detection and response (MDR) services for security operations teams. The company generated $859.8 million in revenue in 2025, up from $535.4 million in 2021 (a 13% CAGR), with recurring revenue at 96% of total revenue, serving more than 11,500 customers in 150 countries including 36% of the Fortune 100.