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RGLDRoyal Gold, Inc.Sell6.2·$206.00+4.53%
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Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $206.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Commodity: gold (78.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: properties outside the United States (85.0%).

Royal Gold acquires and manages precious metal streams and royalty interests globally, owning interests in 18 production-stage stream properties and 63+ royalty properties. Record revenue of $1.0B in 2025 (43% increase) is driven 67% by stream interests and 33% by royalties,... Read more

$206.00+38.9% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#23 of 32 Gold
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-2.45%
IncomeYield0.96%(5y avg 1.12%)Payout22.37%sustainable
Stop $190.25Target $284.20(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.1:1
Analyst target$326.67+58.6%12 analysts
$284.20our TP
$206.00price
$326.67mean
$375

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $206.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Commodity: gold (78.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: properties outside the United States (85.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-12
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202655d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 39%
Risks
Concentration risk — Commodity: gold (78.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: properties outside the United States (85.0%)
Leverage penalty (D/E 8.0): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.8
P/E (Fwd)14.7
Mkt Cap$16.7B
EV/EBITDA16.0
Profit Mgn48.9%
ROE12.0%
Rev Growth143.0%
Beta0.42
Dividend0.96%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.83neutral
IV67%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCommoditygold78%
    10-K Item 1: 'we derived approximately 90% of our revenue from precious metals (including 78% from gold and 12% from silver), 7% from copper, and 3% from other minerals'
  • HIGHGeographicproperties outside the United States85%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 85% of our revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025 came from properties outside of the United States'
  • HIGHCustomertop-5 properties (Mount Milligan, Pueblo Viejo, Andacollo, Cortez, Kansanshi)53%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 53% of our revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025, came from five properties: Mount Milligan (22%), Pueblo Viejo (13%), Cortez (7%), Andacollo (8%) and Kansanshi (3%)'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume
4.9
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 96.0%
GatesMomentum 2.3<4.5A.R:R 5.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 55d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $195.76Resistance $244.99

Price Targets

$190
$284
A.Upside+38.0%
A.R:R5.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (55d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RGLD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $206.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Commodity: gold (78.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: properties outside the United States (85.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $190.25. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RGLD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $284.20 (+38.9% upside). Prior stop was $190.25. Stop-loss: $190.25.

What are the risks of investing in RGLD?

Concentration risk — Commodity: gold (78.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: properties outside the United States (85.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 8.0): -1.5.

Is RGLD overvalued or undervalued?

Royal Gold, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.8 (forward 14.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RGLD?

20 analysts cover RGLD with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $327.

What does Royal Gold, Inc. do?Royal Gold acquires and manages precious metal streams and royalty interests globally, owning interests in 18...

Royal Gold acquires and manages precious metal streams and royalty interests globally, owning interests in 18 production-stage stream properties and 63+ royalty properties. Record revenue of $1.0B in 2025 (43% increase) is driven 67% by stream interests and 33% by royalties, primarily gold and silver.

Related stocks: AU (AngloGold Ashanti PLC) · ORLA (Orla Mining Ltd.) · AEM (Agnico Eagle Mines Limited) · FSM (Fortuna Mining Corp.) · CGAU (Centerra Gold Inc.)
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