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CGAUCenterra Gold Inc.Sell6.9·$16.14+3.33%
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Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.14 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5.

Centerra Gold Inc. engages in the operation, development, exploration, and acquisition of gold and copper properties in North America, Turkey, and internationally. The company also owns and operates a molybdenum business unit, which includes a metallurgical processing facility... Read more

$16.14+9.0% A.UpsideScore 6.9/10#10 of 32 Gold
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield0.05%
IncomeYield1.29%(5y avg 2.92%)Payout6.52%sustainable
Stop $15.01Target $17.59(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$17.75+10.0%2 analysts
$17.59our TP
$16.14price
$17.75mean
$15
$21

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.14 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 54d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202654d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.0
P/E (Fwd)7.6
Mkt Cap$3.1B
EV/EBITDA3.3
Profit Mgn40.3%
ROE33.7%
Rev Growth61.8%
Beta1.54
Dividend1.29%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.71neutral
IV61%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
2.2
Ma Position
4.0
Volume
4.5
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 54d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $14.69Resistance $17.95

Price Targets

$15
$18
A.Upside+9.0%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.5% upside)
! momentum at 3.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (54d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CGAU stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.14 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $15.01. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CGAU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.59 (+9.0% upside). Prior stop was $15.01. Stop-loss: $15.01.

What are the risks of investing in CGAU?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is CGAU overvalued or undervalued?

Centerra Gold Inc. trades at a P/E of 5.0 (forward 7.6). TrendMatrix value score: 9.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CGAU?

18 analysts cover CGAU with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Centerra Gold Inc. do?Centerra Gold Inc. engages in the operation, development, exploration, and acquisition of gold and copper properties in...

Centerra Gold Inc. engages in the operation, development, exploration, and acquisition of gold and copper properties in North America, Turkey, and internationally. The company also owns and operates a molybdenum business unit, which includes a metallurgical processing facility and two primary molybdenum properties. Its principal assets include the Mount Milligan gold-copper mine located in British Columbia, Canada; the Öksüt gold mine located in Türkiye; the Kemess project in British Columbia, Canada; the Goldfield District project in Nevada, United States; the Thompson Creek Mine in Idaho; and 75% owned the Endako Mine in British Columbia, Canada. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Related stocks: IAG (Iamgold Corporation) · KGC (Kinross Gold Corporation) · ORLA (Orla Mining Ltd.) · BTG (B2Gold Corp) · FSM (Fortuna Mining Corp.)
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