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Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.31: Quality below floor (1.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Centerra Gold Inc. engages in the operation, development, exploration, and acquisition of gold and copper properties in North America, Turkey, and internationally. The company also owns and operates a molybdenum business unit, which includes a metallurgical processing facility... Read more

$17.31+15.3% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#25 of 32 Gold
Stop $16.55Target $19.84(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$17.75+2.5%2 analysts
$19.84our TP
$17.31price
$17.75mean
$15
$21

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.31: Quality below floor (1.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 96d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-12.3% upside)
Quality below floor (1.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.6
P/E (Fwd)8.4
Mkt Cap$3.5B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE
Rev Growth
Beta1.52
Dividend1.16%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F0/9

Options Flow

P/C0.15bullish
IV65%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Piotroski F
0.0
Moat
5.0
No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 0/9Quality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.3
Uptrend pullback (RSI 32) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5A.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 96d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $17.06Resistance $20.24

Price Targets

$17
$20
A.Upside+14.6%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.0 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (96d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CGAU stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.31: Quality below floor (1.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $16.55. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CGAU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $19.84 (+15.3% upside). Prior stop was $16.55. Stop-loss: $16.55.

What are the risks of investing in CGAU?

Target reached (-12.3% upside); Quality below floor (1.0 < 4.0).

Is CGAU overvalued or undervalued?

Centerra Gold Inc. trades at a P/E of 5.6 (forward 8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CGAU?

18 analysts cover CGAU with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Centerra Gold Inc. do?Centerra Gold Inc. engages in the operation, development, exploration, and acquisition of gold and copper properties in...

Centerra Gold Inc. engages in the operation, development, exploration, and acquisition of gold and copper properties in North America, Turkey, and internationally. The company also owns and operates a molybdenum business unit, which includes a metallurgical processing facility and two primary molybdenum properties. Its principal assets include the Mount Milligan gold-copper mine located in British Columbia, Canada; the Öksüt gold mine located in Türkiye; the Kemess project in British Columbia, Canada; the Goldfield District project in Nevada, United States; the Thompson Creek Mine in Idaho; and 75% owned the Endako Mine in British Columbia, Canada. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

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