Value
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.9 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.4 |
| PEG | 6.4 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.14
QSR · Why this verdict
Why Restaurant Brands International (QSR) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Restaurant Brands International combines strong momentum, an excellent free cash flow conversion of 173%, and positive news sentiment, but two consecutive earnings misses averaging -51% negative surprise and a stock already near its analyst price target with only 2.2% upside mean the risk-reward is unfavorable at the current price.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Converting 173% of net income into free cash flow and generating strong earnings growth, Restaurant Brands demonstrates a franchise model that produces cash well in excess of accounting earnings, supporting the company's ability to fund dividends and debt repayment. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 150% in each of the next two reported annual periods. | →Stable |
| CounterA high debt-to-equity ratio triggers a leverage penalty, and the dividend yield appears unsustainable at current free cash flow levels per the yield trap warning in the data. | ||
Two consecutive earnings misses, including a -63.4% surprise in February 2026 when the company reported $0.34 against an estimate of $0.93, signal execution issues or structural headwinds that may persist into the next reporting period. Bear case | The company returns to earnings beats in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter showed a positive surprise of 4.0%, and the prior large miss may have been an isolated accounting or restructuring item rather than ongoing operational weakness. | ||
At $75.65 versus an analyst price target of $77.33, the stock offers only 2.2% upside with a 4.4% downside to the stop-loss level, producing a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.50 that fails to compensate for the earnings execution risk. Warnings | The analyst consensus target rises above $90 following restored earnings consistency, improving the upside potential above 15%. | →Stable |
| CounterIf the company continues delivering positive news sentiment and strong MACD momentum, analysts may revise targets upward, restoring a more favorable reward-to-risk profile without a price correction. | ||
The stock is above its 200-day moving average with a bullish MACD signal and rising on-balance volume, indicating that price momentum and volume accumulation are aligned in a positive direction, which historically precedes continued upward movement. Momentum breakdown | The stock sustains its position above the 200-day moving average for at least 6 consecutive months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWith only 2.2% upside to the analyst target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.50, the positive momentum is already priced in and leaves no room for fundamental disappointment. | ||
Converting 173% of net income into free cash flow and generating strong earnings growth, Restaurant Brands demonstrates a franchise model that produces cash well in excess of accounting earnings, supporting the company's ability to fund dividends and debt repayment.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 150% in each of the next two reported annual periods.
CounterA high debt-to-equity ratio triggers a leverage penalty, and the dividend yield appears unsustainable at current free cash flow levels per the yield trap warning in the data.
Two consecutive earnings misses, including a -63.4% surprise in February 2026 when the company reported $0.34 against an estimate of $0.93, signal execution issues or structural headwinds that may persist into the next reporting period.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The company returns to earnings beats in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters.
CounterThe most recent quarter showed a positive surprise of 4.0%, and the prior large miss may have been an isolated accounting or restructuring item rather than ongoing operational weakness.
At $75.65 versus an analyst price target of $77.33, the stock offers only 2.2% upside with a 4.4% downside to the stop-loss level, producing a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.50 that fails to compensate for the earnings execution risk.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The analyst consensus target rises above $90 following restored earnings consistency, improving the upside potential above 15%.
CounterIf the company continues delivering positive news sentiment and strong MACD momentum, analysts may revise targets upward, restoring a more favorable reward-to-risk profile without a price correction.
The stock is above its 200-day moving average with a bullish MACD signal and rising on-balance volume, indicating that price momentum and volume accumulation are aligned in a positive direction, which historically precedes continued upward movement.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock sustains its position above the 200-day moving average for at least 6 consecutive months.
CounterWith only 2.2% upside to the analyst target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.50, the positive momentum is already priced in and leaves no room for fundamental disappointment.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 4.3 |
| Gross margin | 2.8 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 6.6 |
| Current ratio | 4.0 |
| FCF quality | 9.5 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 35%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 135% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $9,837,764 (0.029% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 7.7 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.9 |
| support resistance | 2.7 |
| 52w position | 8.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 7.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 7.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.8 |
| debt equity | 2.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.56
- ▸Above max pain $55
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.9 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings today
- ▸Dividend: 3.5%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.49
Upside
+3.6%
Downside
7.4%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Growth at 6.8 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 6.8, Quality at 6.7, and Sentiment at 6.5; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.5, Technical at 4.6, and Momentum at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.49 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Momentum Above 200ma
Trip ifThe stock price falls below its 200-day moving average for more than 10 consecutive trading days.
- P2Exceptional Cash Conversion Growth
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 120% of net income in any reported annual period.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Miss Concern
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -20% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P4Thin Upside Poor Asymmetry
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target declines to below $70, more than 10% below the current price.