Progressive Corporation (The) (PGR) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $204.02, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Personal Lines (87.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Progressive is the second-largest U.S. personal auto insurer and #1 commercial auto insurer (since 2015), writing personal vehicle, personal property, and commercial auto insurance in all 50 states. Personal Lines accounted for 87% of total net premiums written in 2025, with... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $204.02, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Personal Lines (87.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 29d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-15Recent Developments — Progressive Corporation (The)
Latest news
- NEWS Should I sell Progressive (PGR) stock | Progressive delivers 1 percent EPS beat on steady insurance results - Net Debt/E — Cổng thông tin điện tử tỉnh Lào Cai positive
- NEWS Is Progressive (PGR) a buy ahead of its upcoming earnings announcement? - MSN — MSN positive
- NEWS How is Progressive Corp. (PGR) Planning to Navigate Inflation and Competition Risks - Insider Monkey — Insider Monkey neutral
- NEWS Progressive (PGR) Earnings Forecast to Increase: Key Points Before Next Week's Announcement - Bitget — Bitget positive
- NEWS Progressive (PGR) Falls More Steeply Than Broader Market: What Investors Need to Know - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductPersonal Lines87%10-K Item 1: 'The Personal Lines segment accounted for 87% of our total net premiums written in 2025, 85% in 2024, and 84% in 2023'
- LOWCustomerUber Technologies TNC business14%10-K Item 1: 'we provided commercial auto coverage in the TNC business to Uber Technologies subsidiaries in 14 states. TNC represented 14% of our Commercial Lines net premiums written in 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-01-28Item 5.02MEDIUMCFO John P. Sauerland announced retirement effective July 3, 2026. Andrew J. Quigg (Chief Strategy Officer) expected to be appointed CFO upon Sauerland's retirement. Successor named; no disagreement cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $204.02, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Personal Lines (87.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $207.77 (+1.8%), stop $193.36 (−5.5%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $207.77 (+1.8% upside). Target $207.77 (+1.8%), stop $193.36 (−5.5%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Stop-loss: $193.36.
Concentration risk — Product: Personal Lines (87.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Progressive Corporation (The) trades at a P/E of 10.3 (forward 12.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Hold.
31 analysts cover PGR with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $231.
What does Progressive Corporation (The) do?Progressive is the second-largest U.S. personal auto insurer and #1 commercial auto insurer (since 2015), writing...
Progressive is the second-largest U.S. personal auto insurer and #1 commercial auto insurer (since 2015), writing personal vehicle, personal property, and commercial auto insurance in all 50 states. Personal Lines accounted for 87% of total net premiums written in 2025, with personal auto comprising 95% of personal vehicle premiums. Distribution is split between independent agents (43% of personal vehicle) and direct channels (57%).