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Allstate Corporation (The) (ALL) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $218.96, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.2% away).

Allstate is one of the three largest personal property-casualty insurers in the U.S., offering auto, homeowners, and other personal lines insurance through brands including Allstate, National General, and Direct Auto. Revenue comes primarily from insurance premiums; the company... Read more

$218.96-1.0% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#10 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
Stop $209.31Target $216.77(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$240.00+9.6%21 analysts
$216.77our TP
$218.96price
$240.00mean
$176
$297

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $218.96, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.2% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 56, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 96d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 68%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.2% away)
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)4.8
P/E (Fwd)8.4
Mkt Cap$55.9B
EV/EBITDA4.0
Profit Mgn17.8%
ROE45.2%
Rev Growth3.0%
Beta0.22
Dividend1.99%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C15.67bearish
IV49%normal
Max Pain$135-38.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductauto insurance
    10-K Item 1A: 'Since auto insurance constitutes a significant portion of the overall business, we may be more sensitive than other insurers'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.2
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesA.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 96d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $205.93Resistance $221.19

Price Targets

$209
$217
A.Upside-1.0%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (96d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $218.96, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.2% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 56, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $216.77 (-1.0%), stop $209.31 (−4.6%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ALL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $216.77 (-1.0% upside). Target $216.77 (-1.0%), stop $209.31 (−4.6%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Stop-loss: $209.31.

What are the risks of investing in ALL?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.2% away); Weak growth.

Is ALL overvalued or undervalued?

Allstate Corporation (The) trades at a P/E of 4.8 (forward 8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ALL?

28 analysts cover ALL with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $240.

What does Allstate Corporation (The) do?Allstate is one of the three largest personal property-casualty insurers in the U.S., offering auto, homeowners, and...

Allstate is one of the three largest personal property-casualty insurers in the U.S., offering auto, homeowners, and other personal lines insurance through brands including Allstate, National General, and Direct Auto. Revenue comes primarily from insurance premiums; the company had 211 million policies in force and an 83.24B investment portfolio.

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