Four consecutive earnings beats averaging 68% above consensus and a forward P/E of 8.4x establish a foundation of strong execution and attractive valuation, but the stock has reached its price target leaving essentially no upside buffer — the setup favors patience from existing holders rather than new entry, with the dividend payout ratio at 195% adding a sustainability question.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Absolute Valuation→Stable
- Consistent Earnings Execution→Stable
- At Target With No Upside Buffer→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026
Allstate Corporation (The) (ALL) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Wait for pullback to $226.08. Price sits above the model's entry target of $226.08; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Allstate Protection segment (93.9%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Allstate ranks as the third-largest personal property and casualty insurer in the United States with 21 million policies in force, 53,000 employees, and an $83.24 billion investment portfolio. The Allstate Protection segment — 93.9% of 2025 consolidated insurance premiums —... Read more
Wait for pullback to $226.08. Price sits above the model's entry target of $226.08; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Allstate Protection segment (93.9%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-3.1% upside). Wait for pullback. Score 6.6/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
About Allstate Corporation (The)
About Allstate Corporation (The)
The Allstate Protection segment generated 93.9% of Allstate Corporation's 2025 consolidated insurance premiums and contract charges, placing the company third among personal property and casualty insurers in the United States by 2024 statutory direct premiums per A.M. Best. Allstate holds an $83.24 billion investment portfolio, maintains 21 million policies in force, employs 53,000 people, and operates in all 50 states, D.C., and Canada. State insurance departments in each jurisdiction serve as primary regulators for the company's pricing and product approvals.
Allstate Protection sells private passenger auto, homeowners, and other personal lines products through over 27,400 exclusive agents, approximately 58,700 independent agent locations, and roughly 2,200 direct sales representatives in contact centers and online. Pricing is built on a proprietary underwriting database using risk factors such as vehicle characteristics, driver history, geographic territory, and telematics data from programs including Drivewise and Milewise. The Protection Services segment — 5.0% of 2025 total revenue but 81.6% of policies in force — generates fees through consumer protection plans, roadside assistance, automotive dealer products, identity protection, and the Arity telematics platform. Catastrophe reinsurance covers hurricane, earthquake, and wildfire perils; the modeled 1-in-100 probable maximum loss for these perils stood at approximately $3.1 billion net of reinsurance at December 31, 2025.
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State insurance regulators hold broad authority over Allstate's pricing, products, and underwriting practices. The 10-K notes that regulatory approval of rate changes — especially during inflationary periods — may restrict adjustments required to reach targeted profitability, and certain states impose profit caps that could trigger retroactive premium refunds. Required participation in state assigned-risk pools and joint underwriting associations may force the company to accept below-target returns in those markets. Additionally, state law limits dividend payments from insurance subsidiaries based on statutory income and surplus thresholds, constraining holding company liquidity.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
From Allstate Corporation (The)'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Allstate Corporation (The)
Latest news
- NEWS Allstate (ALL) Sees a More Significant Dip Than Broader Market: Some Facts to Know - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Allstate (ALL) Sees a More Significant Dip Than Broader Market: Some Facts to Know - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com negative
- NEWS Allstate Corp. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch — MarketWatch negative
- NEWS Allstate Corp. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - marketwatch.com — marketwatch.com negative
- NEWS Earnings Preview: Allstate (ALL) Q2 Earnings Expected to Decline - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:50Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductAllstate Protection segment94%10-K Item 1: 'Our Allstate Protection segment accounted for 93.9% of Allstate's 2025 consolidated insurance premiums and contract charges'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
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Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $226.08. Price sits above the model's entry target of $226.08; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Allstate Protection segment (93.9%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-3.1% upside). Wait for pullback. Analyst target $242.35 reached (−3.1%), stop $214.72 (−16.5%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Score 6.6/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $242.35 reached (−3.1% from $250.20); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $242.35 reached (−3.1%), stop $214.72 (−16.5%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Stop-loss: $214.72.
Concentration risk — Product: Allstate Protection segment (93.9%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).
Allstate Corporation (The) trades at a P/E of 5.0 (forward 8.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
31 analysts cover ALL with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $269.
What does Allstate Corporation (The) do?Allstate ranks as the third-largest personal property and casualty insurer in the United States with 21 million...
Allstate ranks as the third-largest personal property and casualty insurer in the United States with 21 million policies in force, 53,000 employees, and an $83.24 billion investment portfolio. The Allstate Protection segment — 93.9% of 2025 consolidated insurance premiums — sells auto and homeowners coverage through over 27,400 exclusive agents, 58,700 independent agents, and direct channels.