Procter & Gamble has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 recent quarters, generates a 31% ROE with a wide economic moat, and exhibits strong momentum with rising on-balance volume, but the stock is priced above analyst targets with -2.2% upside and carries significant geographic and supplier concentration risks.
Thesis pillars
- Roe Quality Compounding↓Deteriorating
- Perfect Beat Streak Wide Moat↑Improving
- Geographic Supplier Concentration↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Procter & Gamble Company (The) (PG) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Sell if holding. At $142.76, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. operations; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers.
Procter & Gamble sells branded consumer goods across daily-use categories in roughly 180 countries, employing approximately 109,000 people as of June 2025, with international operations generating more than 50% of annual net sales. Revenue comes from branded products sold... Read more
Sell if holding. At $142.76, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. operations; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Procter & Gamble Company (The)
About Procter & Gamble Company (The)
Procter & Gamble sold branded consumer goods in roughly 180 countries and territories in fiscal 2025, with approximately 109,000 employees as of June 30, 2025 — 28% based in the United States and 49% in manufacturing roles. International operations generate more than 50% of annual net sales. Walmart and its affiliates accounted for approximately 16% of total sales in fiscal 2025, while the top ten retail customers collectively represented 43% of net sales, compared with 42% in 2024 and 40% in 2023.
Procter & Gamble earns revenue by selling branded products through retail channels including mass merchandisers, e-commerce and social commerce platforms, grocery stores, membership club stores, and drug stores, as well as directly to consumers. Almost all raw and packaging materials are purchased from third-party suppliers, some of whom are single-source; petroleum-derived resins, pulp, natural gas, and packaging materials are among the key input commodities subject to price fluctuation, including from new or increased tariffs. The company invests in research and development and consumer insights to introduce new products and improve existing ones, maintaining brands that compete against both global peers and private-label alternatives. Trade promotion and marketing expenditures support branded pricing power, though the 10-K notes that failure to respond to private-label competition or evolving retail trends could negatively affect results.
Show full overview
Retailer concentration is a recognized risk. The company discloses that no single customer beyond Walmart exceeds 10% of total sales; however, the top-ten customer group has expanded its aggregate share from 40% in 2023 to 43% in fiscal 2025, and the 10-K notes that continued customer consolidation 'could create significant cost and margin pressure.' If a key customer were to reduce inventory levels or reallocate shelf space toward private-label or competing branded products, or if mutually acceptable trade terms could not be reached, the impact on net sales could be material. Single-source suppliers for certain raw and packaging materials add a supply dependency that may compound input-cost pressure during commodity cycles.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
From Procter & Gamble Company (The)'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-31Recent Developments — Procter & Gamble Company (The)
Latest news
- NEWS Procter & Gamble Earnings Beat Estimates. Why the Stock Is Falling. - Barron's — Barron's positive
- NEWS Procter & Gamble Earnings Beat Estimates. This Warning Sends the Stock Lower. - Barron's — Barron's positive
- NEWS Procter & Gamble Earnings Beat Estimates. This Warning Sends the Stock Lower. - barrons.com — barrons.com positive
- NEWS Procter & Gamble Earnings Beat Estimates. Why the Stock Is Falling. - barrons.com — barrons.com positive
- NEWS Analysts recommend buying Procter & Gamble on the post-earnings dip (PG:NYSE) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha neutral
Generated 2026-07-31T23:02:54Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerWalmart16%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to Walmart Inc. and its affiliates represent approximately 16% of our total sales in 2025'
- MEDIUMCustomertop ten customers43%10-K Item 1: 'Our top ten customers accounted for 43% of our total net sales in 2025'
- HIGHGeographicnon-U.S. operations10-K Item 1A: 'our operations outside the U.S. generate more than 50% of our annual net sales'
- HIGHSuppliersingle-source suppliers10-K Item 1: 'Almost all of the raw and packaging materials used by the Company are purchased from third parties, some of whom are single-source suppliers'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $142.76, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. operations; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $135.99. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $144.90 (+1.5% upside). Prior stop was $135.99. Stop-loss: $135.99.
Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. operations; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Procter & Gamble Company (The) trades at a P/E of 21.4 (forward 19.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
37 analysts cover PG with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $161.
What does Procter & Gamble Company (The) do?Procter & Gamble sells branded consumer goods across daily-use categories in roughly 180 countries, employing...
Procter & Gamble sells branded consumer goods across daily-use categories in roughly 180 countries, employing approximately 109,000 people as of June 2025, with international operations generating more than 50% of annual net sales. Revenue comes from branded products sold through mass merchandisers, grocery stores, e-commerce, and other retail channels; Walmart represented about 16% of total sales and the top ten customers accounted for 43% of net sales in fiscal 2025.