Procter & Gamble has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 recent quarters, generates a 31% ROE with a wide economic moat, and exhibits strong momentum with rising on-balance volume, but the stock is priced above analyst targets with -2.2% upside and carries significant geographic and supplier concentration risks.
Thesis pillars
- Roe Quality Compounding↑Improving
- Perfect Beat Streak Wide Moat→Stable
- Geographic Supplier Concentration↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Aug 4, 2026
Procter & Gamble Company (The) (PG) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $158.26, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers of raw and packaging materials; Concentration risk — Geographic: operations outside the U.S..
Procter & Gamble makes branded daily-use consumer products sold in about 180 countries and territories, with operations in 65 countries; operations outside the U.S. generate more than 50% of net sales. Products reach shoppers through mass merchandisers, grocery, club, drug,... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $158.26, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers of raw and packaging materials; Concentration risk — Geographic: operations outside the U.S.. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Procter & Gamble Company (The)
About Procter & Gamble Company (The)
Walmart Inc. and its affiliates accounted for approximately 16% of Procter & Gamble's total sales in fiscal 2025, while the company's top ten customers together made up 43% of net sales. Operations outside the United States generated more than 50% of P&G's annual net sales, and the company employed approximately 109,000 people as of June 30, 2025, with 49% in manufacturing roles and 28% based in the United States.
P&G sells branded, daily-use consumer products through mass merchandisers, e-commerce and social-commerce channels, grocery stores, membership clubs, drug and department stores, distributors, wholesalers, specialty beauty retailers and direct-to-consumer channels, with products sold in about 180 countries and operations in roughly 70. The company's cost base is exposed to petroleum-derived resins, pulp-based packaging materials, labor, tariffs, transportation and energy costs, and almost all of its raw and packaging materials are purchased from third parties, some of which are single-source suppliers, alongside certain sole-manufacturing-plant arrangements the 10-K flags directly. P&G competes against a wide range of global and local branded competitors as well as retailers' private-label brands, differentiating through what it calls superiority across product performance, packaging, brand communication, retail execution and value.
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P&G's supply chain carries a concentration risk distinct from its customer base: the 10-K discloses that the company depends on certain sole supplier or sole manufacturing plant arrangements to meet customer needs and cost targets, and that disruption to any of these -- from a labor dispute, a lost or impaired key manufacturing site, or an inability to procure sufficient raw materials -- has interrupted product supply in the past and could do so again. That single-source exposure compounds a retailer-concentration risk on the demand side, where the 10-K separately warns that continued consolidation among P&G's retail customers could create cost and margin pressure, meaning P&G faces bottlenecks on both ends of its value chain rather than just one.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
From Procter & Gamble Company (The)'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 18, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Procter & Gamble Company (The)
Latest news
- NEWS Procter & Gamble Earnings Beat Estimates. Why the Stock Is Falling. - Barron's — Barron's positive
- NEWS Procter & Gamble Earnings Beat Estimates. This Warning Sends the Stock Lower. - Barron's — Barron's positive
- NEWS Procter & Gamble Earnings Beat Estimates. This Warning Sends the Stock Lower. - barrons.com — barrons.com positive
- NEWS Procter & Gamble Earnings Beat Estimates. Why the Stock Is Falling. - barrons.com — barrons.com positive
- NEWS Analysts recommend buying Procter & Gamble on the post-earnings dip (PG:NYSE) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:35Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerWalmart16%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to Walmart Inc. and its affiliates represent approximately 16% of our total sales in 2026, 2025 and 2024'
- MEDIUMCustomertop ten customers43%10-K Item 1: 'Our top ten customers accounted for approximately 43% of our total net sales in 2026 and 2025 and 42% in 2024'
- HIGHSuppliersingle-source suppliers of raw and packaging materials10-K Item 1: 'Almost all of the raw and packaging materials used by the Company are purchased from third parties, some of whom are single-source suppliers'
- HIGHGeographicoperations outside the U.S.10-K Item 1A: 'our operations outside the U.S. generate more than 50% of our annual net sales'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $158.26, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers of raw and packaging materials; Concentration risk — Geographic: operations outside the U.S.. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $155.97 reached (−1.4%), stop $152.10 (−4.0%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $155.97 reached (−1.4% from $158.26); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $155.97 reached (−1.4%), stop $152.10 (−4.0%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Stop-loss: $152.10.
Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers of raw and packaging materials; Concentration risk — Geographic: operations outside the U.S.; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Procter & Gamble Company (The) trades at a P/E of 23.8 (forward 21.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Hold.
35 analysts cover PG with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $173.
What does Procter & Gamble Company (The) do?Procter & Gamble makes branded daily-use consumer products sold in about 180 countries and territories, with operations...
Procter & Gamble makes branded daily-use consumer products sold in about 180 countries and territories, with operations in 65 countries; operations outside the U.S. generate more than 50% of net sales. Products reach shoppers through mass merchandisers, grocery, club, drug, digital and direct-to-consumer channels. Walmart and its affiliates were about 16% of fiscal 2026 sales and the top ten customers about 43% of net sales.