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Principal Financial Group Inc (PFG) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $101.24 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.3% away).

Principal Financial Group provides retirement, asset management, and workplace benefits/protection solutions globally, with $1,814.6B in AUA and $781.0B in AUM as of December 31, 2025. Revenue is derived from fees on AUM/AUA, insurance premiums, and net investment income across... Read more

$101.24-1.3% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#96 of 109 Asset Management
Stop $96.81Target $99.86(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$99.33-1.9%12 analysts
$99.86our TP
$101.24price
$99.33mean
$87
$113

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $101.24 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.3% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 87d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Attractive valuation
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.3% away)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.5
P/E (Fwd)9.9
Mkt Cap$21.8B
EV/EBITDA9.7
Profit Mgn10.1%
ROE13.4%
Rev Growth-4.5%
Beta0.88
Dividend3.25%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.56bullish
IV44%normal
Max Pain$50-50.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia
    10-K Item 1A: 'Regional concentration of our commercial mortgage loan portfolio in California may subject us to losses attributable to economic downturns or catastrophes in that state.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -4.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.4
Declining revenue: -4%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.2
Quality Rank
3.9
Value Rank
6.6

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.6
Bollinger
1.1
52w Position
9.9
GatesA.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 87d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
83 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $89.30Resistance $101.90

Price Targets

$97
$100
A.Upside-1.4%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-27 (87d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PFG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $101.24 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.3% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $96.81. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PFG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $99.86 (-1.3% upside). Prior stop was $96.81. Stop-loss: $96.81.

What are the risks of investing in PFG?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.3% away); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is PFG overvalued or undervalued?

Principal Financial Group Inc trades at a P/E of 14.5 (forward 9.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PFG?

17 analysts cover PFG with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $99.

What does Principal Financial Group Inc do?Principal Financial Group provides retirement, asset management, and workplace benefits/protection solutions globally,...

Principal Financial Group provides retirement, asset management, and workplace benefits/protection solutions globally, with $1,814.6B in AUA and $781.0B in AUM as of December 31, 2025. Revenue is derived from fees on AUM/AUA, insurance premiums, and net investment income across three segments: Retirement and Income Solutions, Principal Asset Management, and Benefits and Protection. The company targets small and medium businesses in the US as an underserved retirement/benefits market.

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