PBF Energy has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an extraordinary average surprise of 149%, and trades at a forward P/E of 7.0x — but quality metrics are at the floor level with negative free cash flow and a failed momentum gate, making this a deep-value turnaround with significant execution risk.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Beat Streak Deep Value↓Deteriorating
- Quality Floor Fcf Concern→Stable
- High Short Interest Risk↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $63.76: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
PBF Energy owns and operates six crude oil refineries across the U.S. East Coast, Mid-Continent, Gulf Coast, and West Coast, with combined throughput capacity of approximately 1,000,000 barrels per day. The company refines crude into transportation fuels, heating oil,... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $63.76: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 3/7 gates (no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-29Recent Developments — PBF Energy Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS PBF Energy Q2 Adj. EPS $6.22 Beats $4.11 Estimate, Sales $11.678B Beat $9.824B Estimate — benzinga Jul 30, 2026 positive
- NEWS Citigroup Maintains Neutral on PBF Energy, Raises Price Target to $65 — benzinga Jul 24, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Goldman Sachs Maintains Neutral on PBF Energy, Raises Price Target to $71 — benzinga Jul 23, 2026 neutral
- NEWS TD Cowen Maintains Hold on PBF Energy, Raises Price Target to $68 — benzinga Jul 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Evercore ISI Group Initiates Coverage On PBF Energy with In-Line Rating, Announces Price Target of $58 — benzinga Jul 17, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-30T22:29:13Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerSunoco10-K Item 1: 'Sunoco purchases gasoline and distillate products representing approximately one-third of the Toledo refinery's gasoline and distillates production'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $63.76: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $59.25. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $66.96 (-22.1% upside). Prior stop was $59.25. Stop-loss: $59.25.
Target reached (-22.1% upside); Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0).
PBF Energy Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.6 (forward 9.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
19 analysts cover PBF with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $57.
What does PBF Energy Inc. do?PBF Energy owns and operates six crude oil refineries across the U.S. East Coast, Mid-Continent, Gulf Coast, and West...
PBF Energy owns and operates six crude oil refineries across the U.S. East Coast, Mid-Continent, Gulf Coast, and West Coast, with combined throughput capacity of approximately 1,000,000 barrels per day. The company refines crude into transportation fuels, heating oil, petrochemical feedstocks, and lubricants sold primarily on the spot market across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. A fire at the Martinez refinery on February 1, 2025 caused a full shutdown through April 2025.