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PBFPBF Energy Inc.Sell5.4·$40.41-4.63%
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PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $40.41: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

PBF Energy is an independent petroleum refiner operating six US refineries with ~1 million bpd combined throughput, producing gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and petrochemicals. Revenue is driven by crack spreads; the company sells unbranded products through spot and term agreements... Read more

$40.41+8.0% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#8 of 15 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-17.64%
IncomeYield2.60%(5y avg 5.16%)Payout29.02%sustainable
Stop $37.68Target $43.77(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$43.75+8.3%12 analysts
$43.77our TP
$40.41price
$43.75mean
$30
$62

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $40.41: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09

Recent Developments — PBF Energy Inc.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-6.1% upside)
Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.2
P/E (Fwd)7.7
Mkt Cap$5.0B
EV/EBITDA-51.9
Profit Mgn1.5%
ROE8.2%
Rev Growth11.9%
Beta0.12
Dividend2.60%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.06bullish
IV90%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Net Margin
0.7
Roe
2.7
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
4.9
Moat
5.6
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -200% FCF/NIQuality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Macd
9.2
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $36.61Resistance $44.66

Price Targets

$38
$44
A.Upside+8.3%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.1% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PBF stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $40.41: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $37.68. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PBF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $43.77 (+8.0% upside). Prior stop was $37.68. Stop-loss: $37.68.

What are the risks of investing in PBF?

Target reached (-6.1% upside); Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0).

Is PBF overvalued or undervalued?

PBF Energy Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.2 (forward 7.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PBF?

20 analysts cover PBF with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $44.

What does PBF Energy Inc. do?PBF Energy is an independent petroleum refiner operating six US refineries with ~1 million bpd combined throughput,...

PBF Energy is an independent petroleum refiner operating six US refineries with ~1 million bpd combined throughput, producing gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and petrochemicals. Revenue is driven by crack spreads; the company sells unbranded products through spot and term agreements to customers across the Northeast, Midwest, Gulf Coast, and West Coast.

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