PBF Energy has a perfect four-quarter earnings beat record, 56% revenue growth and a very low forward multiple, but weak cash conversion, extreme insider selling and a price above the analyst target limit the case.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Surging Revenue Growth→Stable
- Deep Value Multiple↑Improving
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 12, 2026
PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $73.28: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.89; Below-average business quality.
PBF Energy owns and operates six crude oil refineries across the U.S. East Coast, Mid-Continent, Gulf Coast, and West Coast, with combined throughput capacity of approximately 1,000,000 barrels per day. The company refines crude into transportation fuels, heating oil,... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $73.28: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.89; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 3/7 gates (no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — PBF Energy Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS PBF Energy Q3 Adj. EPS $12.78 Beats $10.59 Estimate, Sales $12.133B Beat $10.500B Estimate — benzinga Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS Piper Sandler Maintains PBF Energy With Hold Rating, Raises Target Price to $94 — fiscal.ai Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS Piper Sandler Assumes PBF Energy at Neutral, Announces Price Target of $94 — benzinga Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Jamie Raskin Warns American Oil Companies Against Helping Putin Sell Russian Diesel Under Trump’s Deal: ‘Proceed at Your — benzinga Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Range Resources, Xtend AI Robotics, Oruka Therapeutics And Other Big Stocks Moving Higher On Monday — benzinga Oct 26, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:35Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerSunoco10-K Item 1: 'Sunoco purchases gasoline and distillate products representing approximately one-third of the Toledo refinery's gasoline and distillates production'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $73.28: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.89; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $69.74. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $74.26 (+1.3% upside). Prior stop was $69.74. Stop-loss: $69.74.
Target reached (1.3% upside); Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -120.4%), Negative free cash flow.
PBF Energy Inc. trades at a P/E of 6.5 (forward 3.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover PBF with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $85.
What does PBF Energy Inc. do?PBF Energy owns and operates six crude oil refineries across the U.S. East Coast, Mid-Continent, Gulf Coast, and West...
PBF Energy owns and operates six crude oil refineries across the U.S. East Coast, Mid-Continent, Gulf Coast, and West Coast, with combined throughput capacity of approximately 1,000,000 barrels per day. The company refines crude into transportation fuels, heating oil, petrochemical feedstocks, and lubricants sold primarily on the spot market across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. A fire at the Martinez refinery on February 1, 2025 caused a full shutdown through April 2025.