HF Sinclair is attractively valued at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 8.9 times with a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio near 1.0 and a four-quarter consecutive earnings beat streak featuring extraordinary positive surprises, but price momentum has broken down materially—on-balance volume is distributing, the momentum reading sits well below the minimum acceptable threshold at 3.5 out of 10—and a sharp recent gap-down may signal either a reversal or the beginning of a larger move lower.
Thesis pillars
- Extraordinary Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- Compelling Valuation↑Improving
- Broken Price Momentum↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026
HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $111.89: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
HF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company in the United States. It operates through five segments: Refining, Renewables, Marketing, Lubricants & Specialties, and Midstream. The company produces and markets gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, renewable... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $111.89: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 109d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-30Recent Developments — HF Sinclair Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS HF Sinclair Corp. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch — MarketWatch negative
- NEWS Raymond James cuts HF Sinclair stock price target on valuation - Investing.com — Investing.com negative
- NEWS HF Sinclair Corporation Stock 12‑Month Price Target Cut to $125.33, Implies 10% Upside - TradingView — TradingView negative
- NEWS HF Sinclair names Ledbetter as new President and CEO, effective January 1 (DINO:NYSE) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha neutral
- NEWS HF Sinclair stock climbs 5% on strong earnings and revenue beat - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
Generated 2026-10-30T13:18:02Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-13Item 5.02MEDIUMCFO Atanas Atanasov terminated effective immediately May 13, 2026. Acting CFO Vivek Garg (VP, Chief Accounting Officer and Controller) had been serving since February 24, 2026. No disagreement with company practices cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-12Item 5.02MEDIUMCEO Timothy Go reached a Separation and Release Agreement effective May 11, 2026, and resigned from the Board. Acting CEO Franklin Myers (Board Chairperson) had been serving since February 17, 2026. Departure not due to any disagreement with company operations or practices.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-31Item 5.02LOWCompensation arrangements approved for Acting CEO Franklin Myers: $9,000 monthly cash stipend and approximately $105,000 monthly in RSU grants, commencing February 17, 2026, approved by the Compensation Committee.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $111.89: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $105.73. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $109.97 reached (−1.7% from $111.89); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $105.73. Stop-loss: $105.73.
Target reached (-1.7% upside); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).
HF Sinclair Corporation trades at a P/E of 5.7 (forward 6.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover DINO with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $122.
What does HF Sinclair Corporation do?HF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company in the United States. It operates through five...
HF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company in the United States. It operates through five segments: Refining, Renewables, Marketing, Lubricants & Specialties, and Midstream. The company produces and markets gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, specialty lubricant products, specialty chemicals, commodity and modified asphalt products, and others. It also owns and operates refineries located in Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Wyoming, Washington, and Utah, as well as markets its refined products principally in the Southwest United States and Rocky Mountains, Pacific Northwest, and in other neighboring Plains states. In addition, the company supplies fuels to 1,700 branded stations and licenses the use of the Sinclair brand at approximately 350 additional locations, as well as provision of other marketing activities. Further, the company produces base oils and other specialized lubricants; and provides petroleum product and crude oil transportation, terminalling, storage, and throughput services to the petroleum sector. Additionally, it offers hydrocarbon chemicals, including white oils, petrolatums, and waxes. The company also exports its products. HF Sinclair Corporation was incorporated in 1947 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.