Value
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.7 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 3.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
PBF · Why this verdict
Why PBF Energy (PBF) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
PBF Energy has a perfect four-quarter earnings beat record, 56% revenue growth and a very low forward multiple, but weak cash conversion, extreme insider selling and a price above the analyst target limit the case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
PBF has beaten EPS estimates in 4 of 4 recent quarters, most recently $6.22 versus $4.12 estimated, and swung from a -$0.52 loss to a positive result in February. Earnings | EPS keeps beating consensus, including the report due in 5 days. | →Stable |
| CounterThe extended history includes three misses in 2024-25 and the average surprise of 158% is inflated by tiny estimates, so beats may reflect low bars in a volatile refining cycle. | ||
Quarterly revenue reached about $11.68B versus about $7.48B a year earlier, roughly 56% YoY growth. Growth breakdown | Revenue stays well above year-earlier levels, with growth holding above 20% YoY over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterRefining revenue follows commodity prices, and revenue jumped from $7.9B the prior quarter, which may reflect price spikes that reverse. | ||
Valuation is flagged as attractive with a forward P/E of 4.1x and a PEG of 0.06, even though the price of $76.17 is above the $73.08 analyst target (upside of -4.1%). Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 8x as earnings hold up, supporting the current price. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA forward P/E of 4.1x at a refining margin peak usually signals that the market expects earnings to fall sharply, and the price already exceeds the analyst target. | ||
Quality notes flag an earnings-quality red flag of only 6% FCF to net income, and the catalyst notes warn of a high yield that is unsafe. Quality breakdown | FCF to net income stays below 50% and dividend safety stays near 4.0 until cash generation improves. | →Stable |
| CounterRefiners can post depressed free cash flow in periods of heavy inventory build or turnaround spending, which can reverse quickly. | ||
Insiders sold about $307.7M over 90 days across 44 sales with zero buys, equal to 3.408% of market cap and rated extreme severity. Insider | Insider selling continues without offsetting open-market buys over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterInstitutions are accumulating, and large-holder sales may be planned diversification rather than a view on the business. | ||
PBF has beaten EPS estimates in 4 of 4 recent quarters, most recently $6.22 versus $4.12 estimated, and swung from a -$0.52 loss to a positive result in February.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS keeps beating consensus, including the report due in 5 days.
CounterThe extended history includes three misses in 2024-25 and the average surprise of 158% is inflated by tiny estimates, so beats may reflect low bars in a volatile refining cycle.
Quarterly revenue reached about $11.68B versus about $7.48B a year earlier, roughly 56% YoY growth.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue stays well above year-earlier levels, with growth holding above 20% YoY over the next four quarters.
CounterRefining revenue follows commodity prices, and revenue jumped from $7.9B the prior quarter, which may reflect price spikes that reverse.
Valuation is flagged as attractive with a forward P/E of 4.1x and a PEG of 0.06, even though the price of $76.17 is above the $73.08 analyst target (upside of -4.1%).
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 8x as earnings hold up, supporting the current price.
CounterA forward P/E of 4.1x at a refining margin peak usually signals that the market expects earnings to fall sharply, and the price already exceeds the analyst target.
Quality notes flag an earnings-quality red flag of only 6% FCF to net income, and the catalyst notes warn of a high yield that is unsafe.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF to net income stays below 50% and dividend safety stays near 4.0 until cash generation improves.
CounterRefiners can post depressed free cash flow in periods of heavy inventory build or turnaround spending, which can reverse quickly.
Insiders sold about $307.7M over 90 days across 44 sales with zero buys, equal to 3.408% of market cap and rated extreme severity.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling continues without offsetting open-market buys over the next 12 months.
CounterInstitutions are accumulating, and large-holder sales may be planned diversification rather than a view on the business.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.7 |
| ROA | 2.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 3.5 |
| Net margin | 2.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.5 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 6% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 56% YoY
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.4 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.4 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 31) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.3 |
Insider
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 7.8 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $272,748,054 (3.140% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.5 |
| quality rank | 4.2 |
| growth rank | 8.0 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.9 |
| support resistance | 9.3 |
| 52w position | 5.9 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.8 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.89
- ▸High IV: 88%
- ▸Above max pain $35
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings today
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (3)
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (4)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
- INSIDER:3.14%=EXTREME
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.10
Upside
+1.3%
Downside
14.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.4<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.10.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.3, and Technical at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 3.4, Quality at 3.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 4 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.10 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Surging Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 20% YoY from roughly 56% currently.
- P3Deep Value Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 8x from current 4.1x.
- P4Weak Cash Conversion Unsafe Yield
Trip ifFCF to net income exceeds 50% from current 6%.
- P5Extreme Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider open-market buying exceeds $5M in a 90-day window, or 90-day selling falls below 1% of market cap.