Value
9.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.7 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.42
- ▸Attractively valued
PARR · Why this verdict
Why Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm (PARR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 6.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.3 |
| Net margin | 3.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 2.1 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 33%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 26% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
4.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
| EPS growth | 4.7 |
Momentum
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.6 |
| OBV | 6.2 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.0 |
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 31%
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $6,606,765 (0.237% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.2 |
| quality rank | 8.9 |
| growth rank | 2.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.3 |
| support resistance | 7.9 |
| 52w position | 6.2 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.3 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 0.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.1 |
| debt equity | 5.8 |
- ▸High IV: 67%
- ▸Above max pain $22
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:1.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:57d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.47
Upside
+14.2%
Downside
9.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: ASYMMETRY:1.5>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 9.0; weakest: Insider at 3.4. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Sentiment at 7.1, and Technical at 6.3; the weakest are Insider at 3.4, Momentum at 3.5, and Growth at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.47 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.