Value
9.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 4.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.22
- ▸Attractively valued
PARR · Why this verdict
Why Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm (PARR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score7.1/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Par Pacific is a cheaply valued, high-ROE refiner with 57% revenue growth, but weak cash conversion, inconsistent earnings surprises, insider selling and only 7.3% upside to the analyst target limit the case for adding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quarterly revenue reached about $2.969B versus about $1.893B a year earlier, roughly 57% YoY growth. Growth breakdown | Revenue stays well above year-earlier levels, with growth holding above 20% YoY over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterRefining revenue follows commodity prices and the prior quarter was only $1.82B, so the jump may reflect price swings rather than durable volume growth. | ||
Valuation is flagged as attractive with a forward P/E of 4.7x and a PEG of 0.22, alongside an excellent ROE of 53%. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 8x while ROE holds above 30%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRefiners trade at low multiples at the top of the margin cycle, and a low forward P/E may signal peak earnings rather than a bargain. | ||
Quality notes flag an earnings-quality red flag of only 10% FCF to net income, so reported earnings are not converting into free cash flow. Quality breakdown | FCF to net income stays well below 50% until working capital and capex normalize. | →Stable |
| CounterRefiners carry large inventory and turnaround spending that can distort a single period's cash conversion, so the metric may recover. | ||
Over the last 4 quarters Par Pacific posted 2 beats and 2 misses, including a $0.78 result versus a $0.99 estimate in May, before beating in August at $10.10 versus $8.15. Earnings | EPS stabilizes at or above consensus, including the report due in 10 days. | →Stable |
| CounterThe latest quarter beat by 24%, so the misses may have been temporary and estimates may be unreliable for a volatile refiner. | ||
Insiders sold about $16.4M over 90 days across 13 sales with no buys, equal to 0.425% of market cap and rated moderate severity. Insider | Insider selling continues without offsetting open-market buys. | →Stable |
| CounterInstitutions are accumulating and the sales may be routine, pre-scheduled diversification. | ||
Quarterly revenue reached about $2.969B versus about $1.893B a year earlier, roughly 57% YoY growth.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue stays well above year-earlier levels, with growth holding above 20% YoY over the next four quarters.
CounterRefining revenue follows commodity prices and the prior quarter was only $1.82B, so the jump may reflect price swings rather than durable volume growth.
Valuation is flagged as attractive with a forward P/E of 4.7x and a PEG of 0.22, alongside an excellent ROE of 53%.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 8x while ROE holds above 30%.
CounterRefiners trade at low multiples at the top of the margin cycle, and a low forward P/E may signal peak earnings rather than a bargain.
Quality notes flag an earnings-quality red flag of only 10% FCF to net income, so reported earnings are not converting into free cash flow.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF to net income stays well below 50% until working capital and capex normalize.
CounterRefiners carry large inventory and turnaround spending that can distort a single period's cash conversion, so the metric may recover.
Over the last 4 quarters Par Pacific posted 2 beats and 2 misses, including a $0.78 result versus a $0.99 estimate in May, before beating in August at $10.10 versus $8.15.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS stabilizes at or above consensus, including the report due in 10 days.
CounterThe latest quarter beat by 24%, so the misses may have been temporary and estimates may be unreliable for a volatile refiner.
Insiders sold about $16.4M over 90 days across 13 sales with no buys, equal to 0.425% of market cap and rated moderate severity.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling continues without offsetting open-market buys.
CounterInstitutions are accumulating and the sales may be routine, pre-scheduled diversification.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.6 |
| Op margin | 8.4 |
| Net margin | 5.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.8 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 53%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 10% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 57% YoY
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.5 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 35) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.9 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 29%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 8.1 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $16,436,434 (0.445% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
7.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.6 |
| quality rank | 8.4 |
| growth rank | 9.3 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.5 |
| 52w position | 6.3 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.3 |
| days to cover | 6.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 9.0 |
| implied vol | 1.4 |
| beta | 8.5 |
| debt equity | 7.6 |
- ▸High IV: 72%
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (3)
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (1)
- INSIDER:0.45%=MODERATE
Reward-to-Risk
0.84
Upside
+12.0%
Downside
14.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.7B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: 8K:CLEAN. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 3.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.1, and Peer rank at 7.8; the weakest are Momentum at 3.3, Insider at 5.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.84 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Rapid Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 20% YoY from roughly 57% currently.
- P2Cheap Valuation High Roe
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 9x from current 4.7x.
- P3Weak Cash Conversion
Trip ifFCF to net income exceeds 60% from current 10%.
- P4Inconsistent Earnings Surprises
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 0% for 3 consecutive quarters.
- P5Moderate Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider open-market buying exceeds $1M in a 90-day window, or 90-day selling falls below 0.1% of market cap.